Stochastic Models of the Flood Hydrograph Realizations

本项目旨在开发新的随机模型和对一般多填充连续时间洪水实现的完整形状的概率描述。首先，将建立一个一般多站降水过程的点随机模型，该模型是根据在一个分水岭上现有的测量站所观测到的。将降水作为洪水的驱动过程，得到洪水起洪时间、发峰时间和洪峰震级的三维点随机（3-DPS）模型。然后，作为3-DPS模型的扩展，建立了连续时间洪水实现的随机模型。最后，将上述模型以联合概率密度函数的形式对连续时间、一般为多峰的洪水水文实现进行概率描述。

This project aims to develop new stochastic models and a probabilistic description for the complete shapes of generally multi-packed continuous-time flood realizations. First, a point stochastic model of the generally multi-station precipitation process, as observed at the available gaging stations over a watershed, will be developed. Usingprecipitation as the driving process of floods, a three-dimensional point stochastic (3-DPS) model for flood starting times, times to peaks, and peak magnitudes will be obtained. Then a stochastic model for the continuous-time flood realizations will be developed as an extension of the 3-DPS model. Finally, a probabilistic description of the continuous-time, generallymulti- peaked flood hydrograph realizations will be obtained from the above models in terms of a joint probability density function.