[Malaysia] Flood Impacts across Scales- informing models of flood exposure and vulnerability via an integrated multi-scale approach

[马来西亚] 跨尺度洪水影响 - 通过综合多尺度方法提供洪水暴露和脆弱性模型

• 批准号: NE/S003177/1
• 负责人: Nicholas Reynard
• 金额: $ 63.1万
• 依托单位: NERC CEH (Up to 30.11.2019)
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS003177%2F1
• 关键词: Malaysia; Flood; Impacts; across; Scales

Flooding is a threat to communities in both Malaysia and the UK. Computer modelling is a widely used approach to working out which areas are vulnerable to flooding. This allows government agencies, NGOs and communities to work out how to invest time and resources to protect areas at risk. Understanding of the causes of flooding has increased rapidly in recent years. We now have good data on environmental factors like rain and temperature which can influence where floods will happen. There are now good models of climate change. If we work out where flooding is going to happen, computer models can now be used to work out how flood waters will move around cities and which buildings will flood. One problem that still remains is to include the complexities of real life in these models. We currently assume that the same flood will always lead to the same consequences. This makes models quicker to run, but we know it's not how flooding works. If floods occur just before harvests they can destroy entire crops, but if they occur when fields are empty the costs can be very low. If one flood follows another in quick succession, facilities like hospitals and power stations could remain damaged from the first flood, meaning that the second one has much greater impact on people's lives. With research into how communities are affected by flooding, which takes into account the timing of floods as well as how closely associated they are in time, a genuinely new approach to flood risk could be developed. Malaysia is a very good place to develop these models. Its economy is developing quickly, so new approaches have the opportunity to be tested in a changing environment. Similarly, climate in Malaysia includes monsoons, which are a good test of model ability for environmental modellers. From a development perspective, Malaysia is a success story which is rapidly transitioning towards developed status, but still has large numbers of people at risk and in large areas, development can be set back by severe floods. Lastly, following severe floods in 2014, there is a renewed interest in developing innovative flood risk approaches in Malaysia. Our approach to developing a new flood model in Malaysia would make use of the different experts in our group. Bringing together experts from the UK and Malaysia, both of which have invested significantly in flood research in the last decade, would allow us to combine skills from experts with different specialities. Our economists will use economic modelling to understand how different sectors of the economy might change in future and how they might be exposed to flooding. Our group's environmental scientists will use existing computer models of rivers to show where river levels are likely to become high enough to generate flooding. Our flooding engineers will apply new hydraulics models to show how flood waters move once they have left the rivers. Experts in combining computer model outputs will combine each of these into a new model of flood risks. This new model will be used to find the effects of scenarios (factors we can't control such as climate change and increasing urbanisation) and strategies (factors we can control such as new flood defences and warning systems) which will help to evaluate some of these strategies for their effectiveness and value for money. This will allow future flood planning to be better targeted within Malaysia. We hope that Malaysia will act as a good case study for this research and that it would be taken up by other countries in South East Asia and around the world.

洪水对马来西亚和英国的社区构成威胁。计算机建模是一种广泛使用的方法，用于确定哪些区域容易遭受洪水侵袭。这使得政府机构、非政府组织和社区能够研究如何投入时间和资源来保护面临风险的地区。近年来，人们对洪水成因的了解迅速增加。我们现在拥有有关降雨和温度等环境因素的良好数据，这些因素可能会影响洪水发生的地点。现在已经有了很好的气候变化模型。如果我们计算出洪水将在哪里发生，现在可以使用计算机模型来计算洪水将如何在城市周围移动以及哪些建筑物将被淹没。仍然存在的一个问题是将现实生活的复杂性纳入这些模型中。我们目前假设相同的洪水总是会导致相同的后果。这使得模型运行得更快，但我们知道这不是洪水的工作原理。如果洪水发生在收获前夕，可能会毁掉整个农作物，但如果发生在田地空无一人时，损失可能会非常低。如果一场洪水接连发生，医院和发电站等设施可能会因第一次洪水而受损，这意味着第二次洪水对人们的生活影响更大。通过研究社区如何受到洪水的影响，考虑到洪水发生的时间以及它们在时间上的紧密程度，可以开发出一种真正新的洪水风险方法。马来西亚是开发这些模型的一个非常好的地方。中国经济发展迅速，因此新方法有机会在不断变化的环境中得到检验。同样，马来西亚的气候包括季风，这对环境建模者来说是对模型能力的良好考验。从发展的角度来看，马来西亚是一个成功的故事，它正在迅速向发达国家过渡，但仍然有大量人口处于危险之中，而且大面积地区的发展可能会因严重洪水而受阻。最后，继 2014 年严重洪水之后，马来西亚重新燃起了开发创新洪水风险方法的兴趣。我们在马来西亚开发新洪水模型的方法将利用我们团队中的不同专家。来自英国和马来西亚的专家在过去十年中在洪水研究方面投入了大量资金，将这两个国家的专家聚集在一起，将使我们能够结合不同专业专家的技能。我们的经济学家将利用经济模型来了解不同经济部门未来可能发生的变化以及它们可能如何受到洪水的影响。我们小组的环境科学家将使用现有的河流计算机模型来显示哪里的河流水位可能会高到足以产生洪水。我们的洪水工程师将应用新的水力模型来展示洪水离开河流后如何移动。组合计算机模型输出的专家将把这些输出组合成一个新的洪水风险模型。这个新模型将用于寻找情景（我们无法控制的因素，例如气候变化和日益增长的城市化）和策略（我们可以控制的因素，例如新的防洪和预警系统）的影响，这将有助于评估其中一些策略的有效性和性价比。这将使马来西亚未来的洪水规划更有针对性。我们希望马来西亚能够成为这项研究的良好案例，并被东南亚和世界其他国家所采用。