Seismic Hazard Prediction Using Fuzzy Sets

本研究将地震灾害预测中的不确定性信息分为随机信息和模糊信息两类。随机信息是指由于自然随机因素而产生的信息，例如，地震序列（事件的随机发生）和与事件相关的地面运动。模糊信息是指由于缺乏信息或知识而导致不精确的信息，如磨损衰减关系、灾害的数学模型、地质和岩土场地特征等。与随机信息有关的因素可以用概率论来处理，而不精确问题可以用基于模糊集理论的模糊数学模型来处理。

This research will separate the information pertaining to uncertainties in seismic hazard prediction into two groups: random information and fuzzy information. The random information is that due to factors which are random in nature, e.g., the earthquake sequences (random occurrence of events) and the ground motions associated with an event. The fuzzy information is that due to lack of information or knowledge which causes imprecision, e.g., wear attenuation relation, mathematical model for hazard, and geological and geotechnical site characteristics. While factors involved with the random information can be handled by probability theory, the imprecision problems could be handled within a fuzzy mathematical model based on the theory of fuzzy sets.