Seismic Hazard Analysis: Improved Models and Analysis of Uncertainties and Sensitivities

提出了一种新的综合分析地震危险性的方法，该方法综合考虑了震源特征、地震波的衰减特征以及当地地质和土壤的影响。新方法基于在结构可靠性中开发的快速概率积分方案，将允许在危险分析中纳入精细化模型。它还将允许对模型不确定性进行适当分析，并评估危险对各种模型或参数的敏感性。使用新方法，可以用其他方法测量地面运动强度，包括矢量表示法。将开发具有上述能力的通用计算机代码，并将向工程界提供。这项研究将导致一种合理的危险分析方法，通过利用现有的扩展的地震数据库和最近取得的对地震涉及的物理过程的更好理解，突破跨学科的障碍。

A new, comprehensive method for the analysis of seismic hazard is developed to incorporate features of the earthquake source, the attenuation of seismic waves, and the effects of local geology and soil. The new method, based on a fast probability integration scheme developed in structural reliability, will allow the incorporation of refined models in the hazard analysis. It will also allow proper analysis of model uncertainties and evaluation of sensitivities of the hazard to various models or parameters. Alternative measures of ground motion intensity, including vector representations, will be possible with the new method. A general-purpose computer code with the above capabilities will be developed and will be made available to the engineering community. The research will lead to a rational hazard analysis method which breaks across the interdisciplinary barriers by making use of the expanded seismic data base available and the better understanding of the physical process involved by earthquakes achieved lately.