Most-Probable-State Analysis: A Macro Statistical Approach to Testing Probabilistic Theories of Spatial Behavior

最可能状态（MPS）分析是一种估计被划分为区域和地方组成群体的大量人口的一般特征的技术。MPS是分析和预测区域和地方单位之间流动的一种手段，因此可以进行区域人口预测。在基金会的支持下，史密斯教授一直在进行开发和完善MPS分析的研究。这笔奖金将支持进一步推广该技术和详细阐述其应用的研究。MPS为区域和地点之间的空间相互作用建模提供了统一的理论基础。这种统一的应用将导致改进测量和分析各种空间相互作用的技术，特别是那些影响人口和就业区域变化的技术。

Most-probable-state (MPS) analysis is a technique for estimating general characteristics of large populations divided into regional and local component groups. MPS is a means of analyzing and forecasting movements among regional and local units and therefore of making regional population forecasts. Professor Smith has been conducting research on developing and refining MPS analysis with Foundation support. This award will support research on further extensions of the technique and on elaboration of its applications. MPS offers the potential for unifying the theoretical basis for modelling spatial interactions among regions and places. The applications of such a unification would result in improved techniques for measuring and analyzing spatial interactions of all kinds, but especially those that bear upon regional changes in population and employment.