A Personalist Approach to Estimating Populations of Institutions

1000多万家美国企业和其他机构每年花费超过2万亿美元购买商品和服务。然而，许多研究表明，企业和行业花在新产品开发上的资金中，有70%以上花在了从未在商业上成功过的产品上。更好的质量和更及时的研究将有助于这个市场更有效地运行，并使美国供应商在全球经济中更有效。推荐的奖项将支持小型企业创新研究计划资助的项目的最后(第二阶段)阶段。在第二阶段，将完成对工业市场研究方法的研究，该方法基于一种被称为“贝叶斯”的机构估计方法，在这种方法中，严重依赖对误差来源的先前判断性估计。在应用方面积累的经验将提供宝贵的知识和专门知识储备，这些知识和专门知识已被证明在市场研究的其他领域具有商业价值。具体的发展将包括机构数据库以及用于进行估算研究的用户界面和分析算法，以及为评价内部(逻辑)一致性和外部有效性，包括经济估值而进行的此类研究的实际业绩。其最终目的是为工业市场研究中使用的机构评估研究的设计、评估和解释提供商业服务。将向工业市场研究的用户和从业人员提供材料和技术诀窍，以便将创新的分析技术与补充调查技术、抽样框架和数据资源结合起来应用。考虑到每年数十亿美元的量化机构研究，这种服务的潜在市场非常大。

More than 10 million U.S. businesses and other institutions spend over two trillion dollars per year purchasing goods and services. Yet many studies have shown that over 70 percent of the money business and industry spends on new product development is spent on products that are never commercially successful. Better quality and more timely research would help this market operate more efficiently and allow U.S. suppliers to be more effective in a global economy. The recommended award will support the final (Phase II) stage of a project funded under the Small Business Innovation Research Program. In Phase II, research will be completed on a methodology for industrial market research based upon an approach to institutional estimation known as "Bayesian," in which heavy reliance is placed upon prior judgmental estimates of sources of error. Accumulated experience in application will provide a valuable capital stock of knowledge and expertise that has proven commercially valuable in other areas of market research. Specific developments will include institutional data bases along with user interfaces and analytic algorithms for performing estimation studies, and the actual performance of such studies for purposes of evaluating internal (logical) consistency and external validity, including economic valuation. The ultimate aim is to provide a commercial service for the design, evaluation, and interpretation of institutional estimation studies employed in industrial market research. Users and practitioners of industrial market research would be offered both the materials and know-how for applying innovative analytic technology in conjunction with complementary survey techniques, sampling frames, and data resources. Given that quantitative institutional research accounts for billions of dollars each year, the potential market for such a service is very large.