Studies of Global Climate Dynamics and Predictability

这个为期三年的研究计划将调查以下物理机制：(a)产生近全球低频气候变率的主要模式；(b)负责使短期（季节到年际）气候预测成功的大气演化特征。这一分析的主要数据基础将是欧洲中期天气预报中心16年的环流模式模拟，该模式是由观测到的全球海面温度所强迫的。从(a)和(b)中获得的知识将用于构建海洋-大气耦合系统的高度参数化数值模式，该模式在某些情况下可能能够成功地进行超长时间气候预报。这项工作很重要，因为它将增强我们对与厄尔尼诺和南方涛动现象相关的年际气候变化的理解。

This three year research program will investigate the physical mechanisms that (a) give rise to a major mode of low frequency near-global climate variability and (b) are responsible for the evolutionary atmospheric features that allow successful short-term (seasonal to inter-annual) climate prediction. The primary data base for this analysis will be a 16-year simulation of the general circulation model from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting which was forced by observed global sea surface temperatures. The knowledge gained from (a) and (b) will be used to construct a highly parameterized numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system that may be capable, in certain instances, of making successful ultra long-range climate forecasts. This work is important because it will enhance our understanding of interannual climate variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation phenomenon.