Models for the Use of Accident Precursor Data to Estimate Rare Event Frequencies (Decision, Risk, and Management Science)

事故前兆数据使用模型的应用 或“未遂事件”将在估计的频率进行调查， 罕见事件 特别是，这项工作将侧重于应用 在现有数据（即，的 观察到的前兆或未遂事件）受到广泛的分歧 专家的解释，以及专家的意见 为决策者提供的指导相对较少。 结果 （1）提供一个正式的使用程序， 事故前兆数据在估计事件频率;和（2）援助 决策者对专家可信度的评价 事故前兆的解释。 互动活动包括在几个高级讲座 风险分析本科和研究生课程， 可靠性工程，参加每周研讨会系列， 化学与核工程系，特别是 强调邀请其他女工程师和女科学家作演讲， 和美国学生分会的指导老师 核协会，该协会有大量女性成员， 当地女工程师协会的学生分会 该项目进一步促进了VPW计划的目标，即（1）提供 为妇女提供在工程和技术领域发展职业生涯的机会 由NSF支持的科学学科和（2）鼓励 妇女追求科学和工程事业，提供更大的 在工业界就业的女科学家和女工程师的知名度， 政府和学术机构。 通过鼓励 妇女参与科学，这是一项宝贵的投资， 国家未来的科学活力。

The application of a model for the use of data on accident precursors or "near misses" will be investigated in estimating the frequencies of rare events. In particular, this work will focus on the application of the proposed framework in cases where the available data (i.e., the observed precursors or near misses) are subject to widely divergent interpretations by the experts, and as a result expert opinion provides relatively little guidance to decision makers. The results of this work will: (1) provide a formal procedure for the use of accident precursor data in estimating event frequencies; and (2) aid decision makers in evaluating the credibility of expert interpretations of accident precursors. Interactive activities include giving lectures in several senior undergraduate and graduate-level courses on risk analysis and reliability engineering, participating in the weekly seminar series of the Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, with particular emphasis on inviting other women engineers and scientists as speakers, and with the faculty advisor for the student chapter of the American Nuclear Society, which has a large female membership, and with the local student chapter of the Society of Women Engineers. This project furthers VPW program objectives which are (1) to provide opportunities for women to advance their careers in engineering and in the disciplines of science supported by NSF and (2) to encourage women to pursue careers in sience and engineering by providing greater visibility for women scientists and engineers employed in industry, government, and academic institutions. By encouraging the participation of women in science, it is a valuable investment in the Nation's future scientific vitality.