Empirical and Theoretical Models of Earnings and Employment

该项目包括劳动经济学领域的几项研究：(1)恢复工作资历；(2)补偿工资差异；(3)失业持续时间的周期性行为；(4)仲裁和调解；以及(5)工资结构的变化。将前三个项目联系在一起的一个重要主题是，未能考虑劳动力市场流动的原因和影响，导致许多对收入和就业决定因素的传统估计至少难以解释，而且可能存在偏见。在第一个项目中，将对OLS回归保有权的可转让性进行系统的实证调查。与现有的研究相比，将使用来自各种样本的数据。将区分因裁员而下岗的工人和因工厂关闭而下岗的工人。至少将开发两个理论模型，强调不同可能的可转让回报来源。理论和经验工作将通过检验动留和匹配质量模型的预测来整合。对于第二个项目，将使用因工厂关闭而失业的工人样本来研究补偿工资差异。这将使估计差额的内生工作变动问题得到近似解决。第三个项目将对这一假设进行两组测试，即经济衰退期间临时裁员人数的增加导致了总失业率的增加与逃失率的增加有关。这些测试将涉及失业工人的样本和收入动态小组调查的样本。第四个项目将扩展现有关于解决争端的文献，纳入调解，并允许调解人可能是自私自利的代理人。该项目的理论部分将涉及对学习过程进行建模，特别注意调解相对于争端解决机制其他方面的时机，以及在该过程不同阶段进行学习的可能性。该项目的经验性部分将涉及调查在调解进程不同阶段在调解和不调解情况下达成的协议的结算率和特点。最后一个项目将考察美国和选定的其他经合组织经济体的工资结构变化。其中一部分将考察美国公共部门的工资结构如何应对20世纪70年代和80年代私营部门工资结构的变化。第二部分将比较美国和其他经合组织国家按技能划分的工资差异的变化。

This project consists of several studies in the area of labor economics: (1) the return to job seniority; (2) compensating wage differentials; (3) the cyclical behavior of unemployment durations; (4) arbitration and mediation; and (5) changes in the structure of wages. An important theme linking the first three projects is that the failure to account for the causes and effects of labor market mobility leads many conventional estimate of the determinants of earnings and employment to be at least difficult to interpret and probably biased. In the first project, a systematic empirical investigation of the transferability of the OLS return to tenure will be conducted. In contrast with the existing research, data from a variety of samples will be used. A distinction will be made between those workers displaced by layoffs and those displaced by plant closings. At least two theoretical models will be developed that emphasize different possible sources of transferable return. The theoretical and empirical work will be integrated by testing the predictions of the mover-stayer and match-quality models. For the second project, a sample of workers displaced by plant closings will be used to study compensating wage differentials. This will allow an approximate solution to the problem of endogenous job change in estimating differentials. The third project will involve two sets of tests of the hypothesis that the increase in temporary layoffs during a recession is responsible for the finding that an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate is associated with an increase in the escape rate from unemployment. These tests will involve both a sample of displaced workers and a sample from the Panel Survey on Income Dynamics. The fourth project will extend the existing literature on dispute resolution to incorporate mediation and allow the possibility that the mediator may be a self-interested agent. The theoretical part of the project will involve modeling the learning process with particular attention to the timing of mediation relative to other aspects of the dispute resolution mechanism and the potential for learning at various stages of the process. The empirical part of the project will involve investigating settlement rates and characteristics of agreements reached with and without mediation at different stages of the process. The final project will examine changes in the structure of wages in the U.S. and selected other OECD economies. One part will examine how the wage structure in the U.S. public sector has responded to changes in the wage structure in the private sector during the 1970s and 1980s. The second part will compare changes in wage differential by skill in the U.S. and other OECD countries.