Topics in Dynamic Macroeconomics

这一研究应使有价值的方法和实质性的 对我们理解经济动态的贡献 增长、消费、储蓄和其他重要的经济 变量 该项目致力于研究经济学中的学习 经济波动的递归动态模型; 货币历史 关于学习的两条研究路线是 通过分类器系统进行人工智能学习， 通过递归阿尔马模型学习。 两类递归 动态模型被认为是，一个与"信令"内 不完全市场和完全市场。 两个领域 货币历史的审查：宏观经济学的 法国大革命前后时期 政府从一种商品货币标准转变为 另 博弈论和宏观经济学中的模型通常具有多个 平衡，而且对于任何一个代理人来说，都没有不言自明的方式 或者经济学家从中选择。 货币 经济学，有各种各样的模型，显示这样的 多样性 本项目对学习的研究 算法非常重要，因为它提供了 在某些情况下，将可能的结果数量减少到 单一理性均衡 该模型的预测可以 然后进行实证检验。 动态随机模型在宏观经济学和金融学中有广泛的应用 建立有关消费等变量如何影响的理论， 利率随时间变化。 但这些模型往往是 需要大量计算来分析或者完全难以处理。 对递归动态模型的研究探索了这些方法， 可以快速且廉价地制定和求解模型。 经济史提供了一个实验室， 宏观经济理论的发展是可以检验的。 的 调查人员发现了一些文件，显示 法国领导人在1940年代前后 法国大革命尝试了一系列的安排 从"真实的账单"方案扩展到"最佳税收平滑"方案 施政纲要而 该项目将利用动态宏观经济和 货币理论来研究这些和其他历史事件。

This research should make valuable methodological and substantive contributions to our understanding of dynamics of economic growth, consumption, saving and other important economic variables. The project pursues research on learning in economic systems; recursive dynamic models of economic fluctuations; and monetary history. The two lines of research on learning are artificial intelligent learning via classifier systems and learning via recursive ARMA models. Two classes of recursive dynamic models are considered, one with "signalling " within incomplete markets and another with complete markets. Two areas of monetary history are examined: the macroeconomics of the periods preceding, during, and following the French revolution and government switches from one commodity money standard to another. Models in game theory and macroeconomics often have multiple equilibria, and there is no self-evident way for either agents inside the model or economists to select among them. In monetary economics, there are a variety models that display such multiplicities. The research by this project on learning algorithms is very important because it provides means of reducing the number of possible outcomes in some cases to a single rational equilibrium. The predictions of that model can then be tested empirically. Dynamic stochastic models are used in macroeconomics and finance to build theories about how variables like consumption and interest rates covary over time. But these models are often computationally demanding to analyze or completely intractable. The research on recursive dynamic models explores ways that these models can be quickly and inexpensively formulated and solved. Economic history provides a laboratory within which recent developments in macroeconomic theory can be tested. The investigator has turned up a number of documents that show the seriousness with which leaders of France around the time of the French Revolution were experimenting with a range of arrangements extending from "real bills" schemes to "optimal tax smoothing" policies. This project will use dynamic macroeconomic and monetary theories to study these and other historical episodes.