Knightian Uncertainty, General Equilibrium Theory and Macroeconomics

从经济学理论，特别是竞争均衡理论的角度来看，劳动力市场的行为似乎非常令人费解。也许最大的谜题是工资对失业率的不敏感。高失业率应该代表劳动力供应过剩，但失业者似乎并没有非常有效地压低工资。如果劳动力市场的表现像真正的竞争市场，那么面对高失业率，工资应该会暴跌，就像股票和大宗商品市场有时会做的那样。然而，经济衰退期间的减薪幅度似乎不大，而且不太频繁。另一个谜题是，工资并不总是对消费者价格指数的变化做出立即和完全的反应，而大多数工资理论决定的是实际工资，而不是名义工资。第三个谜题是罢工的发生。罢工似乎给雇主和雇员都造成了不必要的损失，因为应该可以预测罢工的后果，并在没有罢工的情况下达成协议。这个项目的论点是，用一种新的不确定性决策理论来解释经济学中的这些谜题和其他谜题是最好的，该理论捕捉到了预期的不稳定性或脆弱性。这笔赠款还支持对表达宏观经济现象的一般均衡模型进行理论研究。这些模型的显著特点是，企业只有在长期内才能有效竞争；在短期内，企业很难相互入侵市场。这一困难将使企业对劳动力的短期需求弹性较低。企业之间的竞争将表现为一种非合作均衡。这种均衡存在的条件是严格定义的。失业被证明是存在的，而且是波动的。对经济平均增长率的决定因素进行了分析，并表明这些因素为各国增长率的巨大差异提供了合理的解释。估计了失业和企业垄断造成的福利损失。该项目在这样的理论框架内比较了工资控制的成本和收益。该项目还分析了政府控制通胀的政策。

The behavior of labor markets seems extremely puzzling from the point of view of economic theory and especially the theory of competitive equilibrium. Perhaps the biggest puzzle is the insensitivity of wages to the unemployment rate. High unemployment should represent an excess supply of labor, yet the unemployed do not seem to bid down wages very effectively. If labor markets acted like truly competitive markets, then wages should plunge in the face of high unemployment, just as stock and commodity markets sometimes do. Yet wage cuts in recessions seem to be moderate and infrequent. Another puzzle is that wages do not always respond immediately and completely to changes in the consumer price index, whereas most theories of wages determine real, not nominal wages. A third puzzle is the occurrence of strikes. Strikes seem to cause an unnecessary loss to both employer and employees, since it should be possible to anticipate the consequences of a strike and reach an agreement without one. The thesis of this project is that these and other puzzles in economics can be best explained by a new theory of decision making under uncertainty that captures the instability or fragility of expectations. This grant also supports theoretical research on general equilibrium models which express macroeconomic phenomena. The distinctive feature of these models is that firms are able to compete effectively only in the long-run; in the short-run firms have difficulty invading each others markets. This difficulty would make firms have a low short-run elasticity of demand for labor. The rivalry among firms would be expressed by a non- cooperative equilibrium. The conditions under which such an equilibrium will exist are rigorously defined. Unemployment is shown to exist and fluctuate. The determinants of the average growth rate of the economy are analyzed and shown to offer a plausible explanation of the wide variation of growth rates among countries. The welfare losses resulting from unemployment and from the monopoly power of businesses are estimated. The project compares the costs and benefits of wage controls within such a theoretical framework. The project also analyzes government policies controlling inflation.