Collaborative Research: Rational Expectations and Learning: An Experimental Analysis

本项目的目的是分析对市场的影响 个人学习的价格和市场效率 参与这个市场。 有充分证据表明 供需双方最终对市场有了足够的了解 对他们参与的市场形成理性预期， 在这个意义上，他们不会坚持犯可预见的错误， 这降低了市场效率。 市场的方式 参与者对市场的了解会影响其效率;首先 通过影响参与者了解市场的速度， 第二，影响均衡价格和数量。 一个 了解一个市场的一个重要部分就是了解其他市场 市场上的供应商和需求者。 该项目将分析 通过使用实验市场来学习，其中供应商 在任何交易发生之前确定产量。 这一生产前 销售情况类似于农业市场以及许多其他市场， 在这些市场中，供应商对市场价格的预测 对市场价格的重要影响。 最精确的学习 模型是贝叶斯学习的基于概率的模型， 回归学习 在这项研究中，这两种类型的含义 的学习进行检查。 这项研究很重要，因为它 将使我们更好地理解学习如何影响 市场的有效运作。

The purpose of this project is to analyze the effects on market prices and market efficiency of learning on the part of individuals participating in that market. There is good evidence that suppliers and demanders eventually learn enough about the market to form rational expectations about the market they participant in, in the sense that they do not persist in making predictable errors that reduces market efficiency. The way in which market participants learn about a market can affect its efficiency; first by affecting how quickly participants learn about the market, and second by affecting equilibrium prices and quantities. An important part of learning about a market is learning about other suppliers and demanders in the market. This project will analyze learning by the use of experimental markets in which suppliers determine output before any trades occur. This production before sale situation mimics agricultural markets as well as many other markets in which supplies' forecasts of market prices have an important effect on market prices. The most precise learning models are the statistically-based models of Bayesian learning and regression learning. In this study the implications of both types of learning are examined. This research is important because it will give us a better understanding of how learning affects the efficient functioning of markets.