Capacity and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

这个项目解决了一个重大而重要的难题，它对我们理解美国制造业生产率具有重要意义。研究结果还应增进我们对产出中经济波动的决定因素的理解。令人困惑的是，美国制造业的资本大部分时间都处于闲置状态。具体来说，美国制造业的资本每周平均工作时间只有55小时。如果单位资本的生产率不会随着时间的推移而降低，如果它的用户成本与利用率无关，那么美国制造业资本存量的生产率可以通过增加现有资本存量的利用率而提高三倍。资本的闲置也意味着，即使在周期性的高峰时期，产能紧张也不会限制经济的扩张。这个项目从几个方面调查了增加每周工作时间的成本。它决定了这些成本是否证明低资本利用率是合理的。对更密集地使用资本成本的估计是基于对二战期间美国经济的一项研究。第二次世界大战期间，美国的私营经济在产能几乎没有增加的情况下，产生了巨大的产出增量。该项目收集并分析了二战期间轮班工作、女性劳动参与、生产工作的工作时间和条件以及其他劳动安排方面的数据，这些数据来自于价格管制局、军事采购机构和私营公司的记录。

This project addresses a major and important puzzle with implications for our understanding of U.S. manufacturing productivity. The results should also enhance our understanding of the determinants of economic fluctuations in output. The puzzle is the idleness of capital much of the time in U.S. manufacturing. Specifically, the workweek of capital in U.S. manufacturing averages only 55 hours per week. If a unit of capital does not get less productive with more intensive use over time and if its user cost is independent of the rate of utilization, then the productivity of the capital stock in U.S. manufacturing could be three times higher simply by increasing the utilization of the existing capital stock. The idleness of capital also implies that even at cyclical peaks, tight capacity does not limit the expansion of the economy. This project investigates the costs of increasing the workweek of capital along several dimensions. It determines whether these costs justify the low utilization of capital. The estimates of the cost of using capital more intensively are based on a study of the U.S. economy during World War II. The private U.S. economy during World War II produced a tremendous increment in output with little increase in capacity. This project assembles and analyzes data on shift work, female labor participation, on work hours and conditions for production works and on other labor arrangements during World War II from the records of the price control board, the military procurement agencies and private companies.