Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Inequality

宏观经济波动和不平等

基本信息

项目摘要

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, unemployment increased dramatically in Western economies. More than four years after the financial crisis, the unemployment rate remains above 8% in the US and the UK, and above 11% in the eurozone. This period of rampant unemployment demonstrates that we do not have the policies to fight unemployment effectively, especially in a world with growing inequality. By developing a policy-friendly macroeconomic theory substantiated by empirical evidence, the project will provide some guidance for the design of macroeconomic policies able to reduce unemployment in recessions while alleviating inequality. The goal of the proposed project is to bridge the existing gap between abstract macroeconomic models and actual macroeconomic policy. This gap explains in part why policymakers have been unable to reduce unemployment. In fact, existing models provide little guidance for the conduct of macroeconomic policy in recessions. Furthermore, large income and wealth inequality seem to have precipitated and aggravated the current recession. But these models abstract almost completely from inequality.To achieve our goal, we will develop a new kind of macroeconomic model that captures transparently the features of actual business cycles, in particular by incorporating wealth and income inequality. We will use the model to address theoretically various policy questions: - Should unemployment insurance be more generous in recessions to stimulate aggregate demand? Or should it be less generous to incentivise unemployed workers to search more intensively for jobs?- Should payroll tax shift from employees to employers in recessions to stimulate aggregate demand by transferring income from firm owners to workers? Or should it shift from employers to employees to reduce the cost of labour and stimulate hiring?- Should income tax be more progressive in recessions to stimulate aggregate demand by transferring income from the rich to the poor? Or should it be more regressive to encourage work and entrepreneurship?- Should the government hire workers in the public sector in recessions to reduce unemployment? Or should it fire public workers to reduce public debt and stimulate private enterprise? We will complement the theoretical analysis with numerical simulations of the model using real-world data. The project has a strong potential for impact. Our project will develop a simple macroeconomic model that marries a careful treatment of unemployment and aggregate demand, inspired by the work of Keynes, with the sophisticated treatment of aggregate supply proper to modern macroeconomic models. Additionally, the model will incorporate wealth and income inequality. The model will therefore be useful to many economists in academia. But we hope that the impact of the project will not be limited to academia. By delivering actionable policy prescriptions to fight unemployment and recessions in presence of inequality, we expect the project to have a substantial impact in policymaking institutions. If the project were successful and improved the practice of macroeconomic policy, it would also have a major positive impact on society. Finally, this project is a scientific collaboration with Emmanuel Saez. Emmanuel is the leading economist on the subject of inequality. He is based at the University of California, Berkeley. We will prepare three outputs to disseminate research findings: (1) papers published in academic journals; (2) a toolbox of computer programs available usable by policymakers to benchmark various policy options; and (3) a book compiling research findings and prescriptions for the conduct of macroeconomic policy in recessions. Although the papers are primarily aimed at academics, we expect their theoretical arguments to reach policymakers. The toolbox of computer programs and the book are specifically designed for policymakers.
2008年金融危机后,西方经济体的失业率急剧上升。在金融危机爆发四年多后,美国和英国的失业率仍高于8%,欧元区高于11%。这段失业猖獗的时期表明,我们没有有效解决失业问题的政策,特别是在一个不平等日益加剧的世界里。该项目将通过发展一种以经验证据为依据的有利于政策的宏观经济理论,为设计能够在衰退中减少失业同时减轻不平等的宏观经济政策提供一些指导。拟议项目的目标是弥合抽象宏观经济模型与实际宏观经济政策之间的现有差距。这一差距在一定程度上解释了为什么政策制定者无法降低失业率。事实上,现有的模型几乎没有为衰退中的宏观经济政策提供指导。此外,巨大的收入和财富不平等似乎促成并加剧了当前的衰退。但这些模型几乎完全从不平等中抽象出来,为了实现我们的目标,我们将开发一种新的宏观经济模型,这种模型能够透明地捕捉实际商业周期的特征,特别是通过纳入财富和收入不平等。我们将使用该模型来解决理论上的各种政策问题:-失业保险应该在经济衰退中更慷慨,以刺激总需求?还是应该不那么慷慨地激励失业工人更密集地寻找工作?在衰退中,工资税是否应该从雇员转移到雇主,通过将收入从企业所有者转移到工人来刺激总需求?还是应该从雇主转向雇员,以降低劳动力成本并刺激招聘?在经济衰退时,所得税是否应该更具累进性,以通过将收入从富人转移到穷人来刺激总需求?还是应该鼓励工作和创业精神?在经济衰退时期,政府是否应该雇佣公共部门的工人来降低失业率?还是应该解雇公务员以减少公共债务并刺激私营企业?我们将使用真实世界的数据对模型进行数值模拟,以补充理论分析。该项目具有强大的影响潜力。我们的项目将开发一个简单的宏观经济模型,该模型结合了对失业和总需求的仔细处理,受到凯恩斯工作的启发,以及对现代宏观经济模型所特有的总供给的复杂处理。此外,该模型将纳入财富和收入不平等。因此,该模型将对学术界的许多经济学家有用。但我们希望该项目的影响不仅限于学术界。通过提供可操作的政策处方,以对抗存在不平等的失业和经济衰退,我们预计该项目将对决策机构产生重大影响。如果该项目取得成功并改进了宏观经济政策的做法,它也将对社会产生重大的积极影响。最后,该项目是与Emmanuel Saez的科学合作。伊曼纽尔是不平等问题的主要经济学家。他在加州大学伯克利分校工作。为了传播研究成果,我们准备了三种成果:(1)在学术期刊上发表的论文;(2)可供决策者使用的计算机程序工具箱,以衡量各种政策选择;(3)汇集研究成果和衰退时宏观经济政策的指导方针的书籍。虽然这些论文主要针对学术界,但我们希望他们的理论论点能够传达给政策制定者。计算机程序的工具箱和这本书是专门为政策制定者设计的。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory
  • DOI:
    10.1257/pol.20150088
  • 发表时间:
    2018-05-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.3
  • 作者:
    Landais, Camille;Michaillat, Pascal;Saez, Emmanuel
  • 通讯作者:
    Saez, Emmanuel
A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications
  • DOI:
    10.1257/pol.20160462
  • 发表时间:
    2018-05-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.3
  • 作者:
    Landais, Camille;Michaillat, Pascal;Saez, Emmanuel
  • 通讯作者:
    Saez, Emmanuel
Optimal Public Expenditure with Inefficient Unemployment
最优公共支出与低效率失业
Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment
总需求、闲置时间和失业率
  • DOI:
    10.17848/wp14-214
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Michaillat P
  • 通讯作者:
    Michaillat P
An economical business-cycle model
经济的商业周期模型
  • DOI:
    10.1093/oep/gpab021
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Michaillat P
  • 通讯作者:
    Michaillat P
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Pascal Michaillat其他文献

Monetary Policy and Unemployment: A Matching Approach
货币政策与失业:匹配方法
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2016
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Pascal Michaillat;Emmanuel Saez
  • 通讯作者:
    Emmanuel Saez
Optimal Public Expenditure with Inefficient Unemployment : Online Appendices
最优公共支出与低效率失业:在线附录
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2018
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Pascal Michaillat;Emmanuel Saez
  • 通讯作者:
    Emmanuel Saez
Beetles: Biased Promotions and Persistence of False Belief
甲虫:有偏见的宣传和错误信念的持续存在
  • DOI:
    10.3386/w23523
  • 发表时间:
    2017
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    George A. Akerlof;Pascal Michaillat
  • 通讯作者:
    Pascal Michaillat
A THEORY OF AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND AGGREGATE DEMAND AS FUNCTIONS OF MARKET TIGHTNESS WITH PRICES AS PARAMETERS
以价格为参数的总供给和总需求作为市场紧缩函数的理论
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2013
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Pascal Michaillat;Emmanuel Saez
  • 通讯作者:
    Emmanuel Saez
Kernel Fusion for Video Retrieval Tasks
用于视频检索任务的内核融合
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2006
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Pascal Michaillat;Slav Petrov
  • 通讯作者:
    Slav Petrov

Pascal Michaillat的其他文献

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