Research in Microscopic and Macroscopic Approaches to Climate Dynamics

这项研究旨在证明气候动力学 了解和气候的可预测性可以从 研究大气气候变量的长时间序列。 补充微观和宏观的方法将是 追求。 在前者中，现代非线性动力学方法 将应用于高采样观测，以调查 短期可预测性的限制。 在宏观方法中， 统计力学的经典方法将被应用于 缓慢变化的气候变量 这两种方法都可能 导致定量估计的敏感性模拟或 观察到的气候小扰动。 一个发展的计划， 测试，并将这些方法应用于一系列越来越多的 复杂的模型和数据，包括在这项赠款。 的 研究将涉及本科生和研究生的培训 学生和博士后。 这一要求很重要，因为它审查了替代方案， 可能富有成效的替代建模方法， 预测气候系统。

This research is intended to demonstrate that climate dynamics understanding and climate predictability can be advanced from the study of long time series of atmospheric climate variables. Complementary microscopic and macroscopic approaches are to be pursued. In the former, the methods of modern non-linear dynamics will be applied to highly-sampled observations to investigate the limits of short-term predictability. In the macroscopic method, the classical methods of statistical mechanics will be applied to slowly-changing climatic variables. Both approaches potentially lead to quantitative estimates of the sensitivity of simulated or observed climates to small perturbations. A program of developing, testing, and applying these methods to a sequence of increasingly sophisticated models and to data is included under this grant. The research will involve the training of undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral fellows. This request is important because it examines alternative and potentially fruitful alternative approaches to modeling and predicting the climate system.