A Technique for Incorporating Uncertain Environmental Factors into the Utility Planning Process

这项拟议的研究工作试图开发一种技术来模拟和研究电力设施规划过程中不确定环境因素的影响。电力公司处理与替代发电、燃料和新减排技术的可用性和成本有关的不确定性。需求和能源预测以及需求侧管理计划的影响也存在不确定性。1990年《清洁空气法》修正案(CAAA)规定的排放上限和排放交易特征为不确定性问题增加了一个新的层面。对排污权市场价格的估计存在很大差异。与此同时，专家们对政府立法和法规在多大程度上应该和将被用来限制排放存在分歧。鉴于这些不确定性，公用事业规划者必须探索各种可能的情景，以确定一个稳健的发电计划。目前正在使用的评价工具假定有不确定性的衡量标准和提供这些措施的专家。显然，情况并不总是如此。该技术旨在利用弗吉尼亚理工大学开发的相互依赖数据分析(IDA)技术生成专家意见的概率估计，从而为不确定情况下的战略电力系统规划提供便利。这使决策者能够对仍在形成的意见进行建模。应用决策树/影响图分析，这可以产生一种稳健的方法来量化与公用事业规划过程中的环境因素有关的不确定性。

The proposed research effort attempts to develop a technique to model and study the effects of uncertain environmental factors in the electric utility planning process. The electric utility deals with uncertainties with respect to the availability and costs of alternative generation, fuels, and new emission reduction technologies. There are also uncertainties in demand an energy projections, and the impact of demand side management programs. Emissions caps and emissions trading features provide for by the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 have added a new dimension to the problem of uncertainty. There are wide variations in estimates on the market price of emission allowances. At the same time experts disagree on the extent to which government legislation and regulations should and will be used to limit emissions. In the light of those uncertainties, the utility planner must explore a variety of probable scenarios in order to settle on a robust generation plan. The evaluation tools which are currently being applied assume the availability of the measures of uncertainty and of experts furnishing them. This is obviously not always the case. The proposed technique is designed to facilitate the strategic power system planning under uncertainty by generating probability estimates for expert opinions using the interdependent data analysis (IDA) technique being developed at Virginia Tech. This enables the decision maker to model opinions which are still forming. Applied with decision tree/influence diagram analysis, this can result in a robust methodology to quantify uncertainties related to environmental factors in the utility planning process.