Dynamics and Predictability of Convective Storms

对流风暴不仅对公众很重要，而且对科学家也很重要。这种风暴产生的恶劣天气对经济造成破坏，危及生命，同时也产生有益的降雨。对对流风暴的位置、时间、强度和类型作出准确的短期预测（最长可达24小时），对社会大有裨益。利用美国国家科学基金会科学技术中心（风暴分析和预测中心）开发的高级区域预测系统数值模型，首席研究员将研究对流活动预测的各个方面。通过使用更宽的参数空间和更高的空间分辨率，在风暴演变过程中更真实地将伪观测误差插入模拟，以及更精确地处理亚网格尺度运动的方法，首席研究员将评估各种动力参数在各种环境设置下预测风暴行为的效用；检查螺旋度和能量耗散之间的联系；并试图了解误差是如何在对流风暴中增长和传播的，从而建立可预测性极限作为风暴类型、环境和其他参数的函数。

Convective storms are of fundamental interest to scientists as well as important to the general public. Such storms produce severe weather that is economically disruptive and life-threatening as well as producing beneficial rainfall. Accurate short term predictions (up to 24 hours) of the location, timing, intensity and type of convective storm would be of substantial benefit to society. Using the Advanced Regional Prediction System numerical model developed at a NSF Science and Technology Center, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, the Principal Investigator will attack various aspects of prediction of convective activity. By using broader parameter spaces as well as higher spatial resolution, more realistic methods for inserting pseudo-observational errors into the simulations during storm evolution, and a more accurate method for treating subgrid-scale motions, the Principal Investigator will evaluate the utility of various dynamical parameters in predicting storm behavior within a variety of environmental settings; examine linkages between helicity and energy dissipation; and attempt to understand how errors grow and propagate in convective storms so as to establish predictability limits as a function of storm type, environment and other parameters.