The initiation, development, and predictability of Mediterranean weather on the synoptic and convective scale leading to extreme events (MED)

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The project focuses on the dynamics of Mediterranean cyclones and convection and on the factors that determine their predictability. The main goal is the early identification of cyclones and convec-tive systems leading to high impact weather (storms, heavy precipitation, flash floods) in the west-ern Mediterranean basin. We aim at quantifying the sensitivity of Mediterranean weather to large-scale forcing due to upper-level PV anomalies relative to the regional-scale impact of (convective) moist processes and surface fluxes. The role of embedded convection and warm conveyor belts in the energy and water cycle of cyclones will be investigated by numerical modelling in order to dis-tinguish between cyclones with and without potential for HIW. The impact of grid spacing, the method of convection parameterisation, and convection resolving approaches on the initiation of convection and resulting interaction with larger (synoptic) scales will be investigated for selected cases with and without HIW events. Using the TIGGE data base the sensitivity of Mediterranean cyclones on changing initial conditions and their coupling on the upstream flow will be analysed. With its model studies this project contributes to and benefits from the HYMEX project on the hy-drological cycle in the Mediterranean.