VPW: Unofficial Markets for Foreign Currency & Goods in theFormer Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (Economics)

这项研究的重点是前苏联和东欧的外汇和商品黑市。商品和货币的平行市场受到官方和非官方外汇贸易市场发展以及经济改革举措的影响。这项研究的目的是从理论和经验两方面追查预期和未预期的政策改革对前苏联和东欧囤积消费品、通货膨胀、黑市汇率和黑市贸易量的影响。方法方法是从汇率决定理论中得出的，资产需求和汇率决定的投资组合理论证明，当商品市场出现短缺时，个人倾向于囤积商品作为一种投资形式，黑市汇率偏向于预测改革后的均衡汇率。宣布改革可能导致短期汇率超过或低于长期均衡水平（取决于宣布的内容）。实证工作将检查卢布和美元之间的黑市汇率（买入和卖出汇率），这些汇率来自莫斯科黑市货币交易商的两周抽样。黑市汇率变动的决定因素将根据经验加以确定，这一市场买卖价差的决定因素也是如此。如果有适当的数据，还将研究商品的黑市价格。波罗的海国家的汇率和价格数据也可以加以审查。这项研究将为政府使用黑市汇率来选择官方汇率水平所造成的扭曲提供见解。该项目进一步推进了VPW项目的目标，即通过研究为女性提供在科学或工程领域发展的机会，并通过研究者在主办校园中作为榜样的知名度提高，鼓励其他女性在这些领域追求职业。有助于实现第二个目标的拟议活动包括：教授国际金融课程；在国际经济学和比较经济研究部门研讨会上提出关于“转型期经济的汇率制度”的独立研究报告；定期参加国际经济学研讨会项目；并通过建立的支持小组“经济学中的女性”积极参与女研究生，努力促进女性在经济学领域的成就。

This research focuses on the black markets for foreign currency and goods in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. Parallel markets in goods and currency are influenced by developments in the official and unofficial markets for foreign- currency trade and by economic-reform initiatives. The objective of the research is to trace, both theoretically and empirically, the implications of anticipated and unanticipated policy reforms for hoarding of consumption goods, inflation, the black-market exchange rate, and black-market trade volumes in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The methodological approach is drawn from the theory of exchange-rate determination, with the portfolio theory of asset demands and exchange-rate determination agumented to show that when there are shortages in goods markets and individuals tend to hoard goods as a form of investment, with black-market exchange rates biased predictors of the post-reform equilibrium exchange rates. Announcements of reform can lead short-run exchange rates to overshoot or undershoot (depending on the announcement) long-run equilibrium levels. The empirical work will examine black-market exchange rates (buy and sell rates) between the rouble and the dollar, as drawn from bi-weekly sampling of Moscow black-market currency dealers. The determinants of black-market exchange- rate movements will be identified empirically, as will be the determinants of the spread between the bid and ask prices in this market. If appropriate data is available, black-market prices for goods also will be studied. Exchange rate and price data for the Baltic nations also may be examined. This research will provide insights into the distortions caused when governments use black-market rates to choose levels of official exchange rates. The project furthers VPW program objectives to provide opportunities for women to advance their careers in science or engineering through research, and to encourage other women to pursue careers in these areas through the investigator's enhanced visibility as a role model on the host campus. The proposed activities which contribute to the second objective include: teaching a course in International Finance; presenting independent research on "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Transition Economies" in departmental seminars in International Economics and Comparative Economic Studies; regularly participating in the International Economics seminar program; and working to promote the achievement of women in economics by active involvement with female graduate students through the established support group "Women in Economics."