Doctoral Dissertation Research: How Voters Use Campaign Information: On-line Versus Memory-Based Processing in a Presidential Election

9411162刘在竞选期间，选民接触到大量有关候选人的资料。在某些情况下，选民可以选择是否关注，而在另一些情况下，信息无处不在，选民几乎无法避免。但在所有情况下，信息流都是动态的，一天候选人对一个问题的立场信息随时可以得到，第二天就很难找到了。然而，研究人员将静态调查作为研究竞选活动的首选方法。然而，调查只能捕捉到一个时间点，通常依赖于选民对他们所看到和关注的东西的记忆。选举缺乏动态化的本质。这种错配的一个重要结果是，尽管我们可以很好地预测投票选择，但我们无法很好地描述选民是如何做出选择的。这个博士论文研究项目旨在通过使用一种动态的、基于计算机的方法来跟踪信息获取和决策过程，从而更好地了解投票决策过程。特别是，将探讨选民是否采用“在线”或“基于记忆”的评价过程的问题。传统的投票模式都是基于记忆的模式，选民在竞选期间存储候选人的信息，并搜索记忆中的内容，以便在“决定的时刻”进行评估和选择。如果模型是正确的，那么在做出决定之前进行的调查将是研究投票决定的理想方法，因为记忆可以被准确地回忆起来。相反，在线模型认为，选民保持着代表候选人当前评价的“在线计票”；当做出选择的时候，选民不需要搜索记忆中的详细信息。事实上，这些信息经常被遗忘。取而代之的是，他们只需回忆与每个糖果日期相关的数字，并做出相应的选择。

9411162 Lau During election campaigns voters are exposed to large amounts of information about candidates. In some cases voters can choose whether to pay attention, while in other cases the information is so ubiquitous that voters can hardly avoid it. But in all cases, the flow of information is dynamic, one day information of a candidate's position on an issue is readily available, the next day it can hardly be found. Yet, researchers use static surveys as the method of choice for studying campaigns. Surveys, however, can only capture a single point in time, relying generally on the voters' memories of what they have seen and paid attention to. The elections's dynamic nature is missing. One important result of this mismatch is that while we can make good predictions of the vote choice, we cannot do nearly as good a job describing how voters come to their choice. This Doctoral Dissertation research project is designed to develop a better understanding of the vote decision process by using a dynamic, computer-based methodology to trace information acquisition and decision-making while it is occurring. In particular, the question of whether voters employ an "on-line" or a "memory-based" evaluation process will be explored. Traditional voting models all suggest a memory-based model, where voters store information about candidates during the campaign and search the contents of memory in order to evaluate and choose at the "moment-of-decision." Were the model correct, then surveys conducted near the time of decision would be an ideal methodology for studying the vote decision because memories could be accurately recalled. The on-line model argues instead that voters maintain an "on-line tally" representing the current evaluation of a candidate; when the time comes to make a choice, voters need not search memory for detailed information. Indeed, that information has often been forgotten. Instead, they merely recall the tally associated with each candi date and choose accordingly.