Simple Models of the Earthquake Cycle Compared with Seismological Observations

小行星9417700 这项研究涉及动态地震模型的开发和表征，该模型从摩擦不稳定性产生复杂的事件序列。 地震在很多方面都很复杂。 单个事件中的失误，事件大小的分布，它们何时发生，以及它们发生在哪里，只是需要理解的复杂性的一部分。 一个基本的悬而未决的问题是什么是复杂性的来源。 最近对简单模型的研究表明，断层上重复破裂的自组织可以产生显着的复杂性。 一类特别有趣的模型是确定性的动力学模型，其中所有的复杂性都是由摩擦不稳定性产生的。 本研究有两个基本目标。 一个是开发地震断层模型，在地震周期的整个时间尺度范围内产生现实的行为，从破裂，前震和余震，中期变化，并超过加载周期的稳态平均值。 第二个目标是开发更好的方法来量化模型中看到的复杂行为;这有助于更好地理解模型中发生的事情，比较不同模型产生的行为，最重要的是，与地球上看到的行为进行比较，并可能提出新的方法来看待来自地球的数据。 这项研究是国家地震减灾计划的一个组成部分。 *** ??

9417700 Shaw This research involves the development and characterization of dynamical earthquake models which produce complex sequences of events from a frictional instability. Earthquakes are complex in many ways. The slip in an individual event, the distribution of sizes of events, when they occur, and where they occur, are just some of the complexities to understand. A fundamental open question is what is the source of the complexity. Recent work on simple models has shown that a remarkable degree of complexity can be generated by the self-organization of repeated ruptures on a fault. A particularly interesting class of models are deterministic, dynamical models in which all the complexity is generated by a frictional instability. There are two basic goals in this research. One is to develop models of earthquake faults that produce realistic behavior across the whole range of timescales in the earthquake cycle, from rupture, to foreshocks and aftershocks, to intermediate term changes, and on to steady state averages beyond the loading cycle. The second goal is to develop better ways of quantifying the complex behavior that is seen in the models; this helps to better understand what is happening in the models, to compare the behavior produced by different models, and most importantly, to compare with the behavior seen in the earth, and perhaps to suggest new ways of looking at the data from the earth. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. *** ??