Develop and Protype Methods for the Automatic Calibration and Validation of Computer Models of Complex Systems

[503976] Dietterich本研究的目标是开发复杂系统计算机模型的自动校准和验证方法并进行原型化。这项研究的平台是一个名为MAPSS（测绘大气-植物-土壤系统）的生态系统模型。MAPSS模型的目的是预测全球气候变化对生物圈的影响。该项目旨在通过结合和扩展计算机科学三个领域的思想(a)声明性编程，(b)并行计算和(c)机器学习，改善MAPPS的开发，维护，校准和准确性。提出的方法将通过更有效的表示和并行实现，自动模型校准系统和旨在最大化预测能力的模型验证系统，为模型开发人员提供显着的加速。这些方法将提高模型开发的效率，并有助于确保成品尽可能准确。此外，这些方法应该推广到MAPSS项目之外，为开发复杂系统的许多计算机模型提供一套工具。

9503976 Dietterich The goal of this research is to develop and prototype methods for the automatic calibration and validation of computer models of complex systems. The platform for this research is an ecosystem model called MAPSS (Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System). The purpose of the MAPSS model is to predict the biosphere impact of global climate change. This project aims to improve the development, maintenance, calibration, and accuracy of MAPPS by combining and extending ideas from three areas of computer science: (a) declarative programming, (b) parallel computing, and (c) machine learning. Together the proposed methods will provide model developers with significant speedup through a more efficient representation and parallel implementation, a system for automatic model calibration, and a system for model validation designed to maximize predictive power. These methods will improve the efficiency of model development as well as help to ensure that the finished product is as accurate as is possible. Further, these methods should generalize beyond the MAPSS project, providing a set of tools for the development of many computer models of complex systems.