Collaborative Research: Intraindividual Variability in Time Discounting: The Overweighting of Immediate, and Underweighting of Delayed Transient Factors

这是与卡内基-梅隆大学的George Loewenstein （SBR-9520891）合作提出的建议。pi建议调查在选择情境中缺乏耐心的个人一致性。作者假设传统的经济贴现模型不足以解释这种不一致性。取而代之的是，pi提出，暂时性的高贴现率是在暂时性因素影响选择方案的可取性的情况下促进的。例如，这些因素包括驱动状态和情绪。以下四个假设包含了他们的理论。首先，即时瞬态因素的变化对行为的影响大于延迟瞬态因素的变化。其次，我们对暂态因素的实际反应比预期的要大。第三，我们低估了未来短暂因素对我们未来行为的影响。第四，人们低估了短暂因素对他人行为的影响。作者建议进行四项研究，每项研究将操纵一个瞬时因素。基本范式是让参与者在现在选择较差的选项或稍后选择较优的选项。pi将观察选择行为是如何通过改变选择的瞬时动机而受到影响的。

This is a collaborative proposal with George Loewenstein of Carnegie-Mellon University (SBR-9520891). The PIs propose to investigate the lack of personal consistency in patience across choice situations. The authors hypothesize that traditional economic discounting models are inadequate to explain such inconsistency. Instead the PIs propose that temporarily high discount rates are promoted by situations in which transient factors influence the desirability of choice alternatives. Such factors include drive states and emotions, for example. The following four hypotheses encompass their theory. First, changes in immediate transient factors have a greater impact on behavior than changes in delayed transient factors. Second, our actual response to a transient factor is greater than anticipated. Third, we underestimate the impact of future transient factors on our future behavior. Fourth, people underestimate the impact of transient factors on the behavior of other persons. The authors propose to do four studies, each of which will manipulate a transient factor. The basic paradigm is to offer participants a choice of an inferior option now or a superior one later. The PIs will observe how the choice behavior is influenced by varying the transient motivation for the options.