Parent AFDC Receipt and Child Fertility and AFDC Receipt

9511557 Jakubson在其他条件相同的情况下，接受福利的母亲的女儿更有可能成为福利接受者。为了使政策能够解决福利传递问题，决策者需要了解的不仅仅是福利依赖性存在代际联系这一事实。传导机制的性质对哪类政策干预措施有效具有重要影响。该项目将划分代际相关性的组件归因于未观察到的异质性，与传递的偏好和/或约束（这将是目前在没有父母的福利参与），和国家的依赖，或疤痕（这是直接归因于父母的福利参与）。收入动态小组研究（PSID）的数据将用于调查这些问题。两种不同的统计模型的开发和测试使用PSID。一个是基于顺序选择的方法，其中福利参与的决定是有条件的生育率的决定。另一种允许在生育率和福利状况之间同时作出选择。在每个模型中，使用两种方法来区分异质性和状态依赖组件。一种方法允许家庭和个人的具体异质性组件，并依赖于分解的时间假设。在另一种情况下，这两个组成部分可以确定没有一个时间的假设，但代价是只允许一个家庭的具体影响。

9511557 Jakubson Daughters of mothers who were welfare recipients are, other things equal, more likely to be welfare recipients themselves. In order for policy to address the issue of welfare transmission, policy-makers need to know more than the fact that there is an intergenerational link in welfare dependency. The nature of the transmission mechanism has important implications for which types of policy interventions will be effective. This project will partition the intergenerational correlation into components attributable to unobserved heterogeneity, associated with the transmission of preferences and/or constraints (which would be present in the absence of parental welfare participation), and state dependence, or scarring (which is directly attributable to parental welfare participation). Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) will be used to investigate these questions. Two different statistical models are developed and tested using the PSID. One is based on a sequential choice approach in which the welfare participation decision is conditional on the fertility decision. The other allows for concurrent choice among fertility and welfare status. Within each model two approaches to distinguish the heterogeneity and state dependence components are used. One approach allows for both family- and individual- specific heterogeneity components and relies on a timing assumption for the decomposition. In the other, the two components can be identified without a timing assumption, but at the cost of allowing for only a family-specific effect.