Collaborative Research on American Leadership in a Turbulent World

9514921霍尔斯蒂这个项目是一个长期合作项目的第六阶段，它将抓住冷战结束以来改变世界政治的戏剧性发展所提供的机会。其目的是增进对美国如何应对和适应一个不再以冷战结束后的欢欣鼓舞为标志的世界的动态的理解。虽然外交政策领导力项目(FPLP)第六阶段的部分设计是为了评估早先调查结果的稳定性，但其主要目的是探索美国领导人的信仰体系如何受到世界事务持续混乱和建立在多边原则基础上的新全球秩序前景日益黯淡的影响。美国领导层早期的研究发现，a)越战前的外交政策共识已经被几个内部一致、基本上相互排斥和持久的信仰体系所取代；b)面对众多挑战，这些尖锐的分歧在很大程度上没有弥合；c)领导人的外交和国内政策信仰体系之间普遍存在明显的意识形态和党派分歧；d)尽管如此，某些问题，尤其是涉及以色列和贸易的问题，在总体调查结果中显得格外反常。该项目采用了与早期研究相同的调查方法，应用并检验了政治适应理论，旨在说明：1)由于联合国最近的失败、与俄罗斯的紧张局势加剧、车臣冲突的爆发以及与日本贸易紧张的到来等开创性事件导致的领导信仰体系发生的任何重大变化；2)苏联解体前几十年形成的长期思维习惯如何受到冷战结束的影响；3)国外的解职、国内的恐怖主义以及围绕国家社会和经济议程的日益紧张的局势在多大程度上助长了单边主义和孤立主义倾向；4)面对世界和国家政治的变化，各种信仰体系保持稳定的维度；5)国内外的变化可能导致美国领导层倾向于达成更广泛的共识或出现更深层次的分歧。这是一个将被对该主题感兴趣的学者广泛使用的数据资源。***

9514921 Holsti This project, the sixth phase of a long-term collaborative project, will seize the opportunity offered by the dramatic developments that have transformed world politics in the years since the end of the Cold War. The purpose is to advance understanding of the dynamics whereby the United States responds and adapts to a world that is no longer marked by the euphoria of the Cold War's end. While Phase VI of the Foreign Policy Leadership Project (FPLP) is partially designed to assess the stability of earlier findings, its primary intent is to explore how the belief systems of American leaders have been affected by the continuing disarray of world affairs and the diminishing prospects for a new global order founded on multilateral principles. The earlier studies of the American leadership community found that a) a pre-Vietnam foreign policy consensus had been replaced by several internally consistent, largely mutually exclusive and durable belief systems; b) for the most part these sharp cleavages were not bridged in the face of numerous challenges; c) discernible ideological and partisan differences prevail between the foreign and domestic policy belief systems of leaders; and, d) nonetheless certain issues, notably those involving Israel and trade, stand out as anomalous with respect to the overall findings. Using the same survey methods employed in the earlier research, this project applies and tests a theory of political adaptation designed to account for 1) any major changes that have occurred in leadership belief systems as a result of such seminal events as the recent failures of the United Nations, the intensification of tensions with Russia, the outbreak of conflict in Chechnya, and the advent of tensions over trade with Japan; 2) how the long-standing habits of thought developed during the decades prior to the collapse of the USSR have been affected by the end of the Cold War; 3) the degree to which unilateralist and isolationist tendencies have been fostered by dis appointments abroad as well as domestic terrorism and mounting tensions over the country's social and economic agenda; 4) those dimensions of the various belief systems that have remained stable in the face of changes in world and national politics; and, 5) the ways in which the transformations at home and abroad may have induced tendencies toward a more widespread consensus or toward ever deeper cleavages within the American leadership community. This is a data resource that will be used widely by scholars interested in the topic. ***