Research on Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change

摘要ATM-9522681 Schlesinger，Michael E. 伊利诺伊大学标题：研究温室气体引起的气候变化 该项目将侧重于以下研究： 最后一次冰期-间冰期循环。 这项研究的目的是模拟和了解冰川-间冰期旋回。 在他成功模拟了115千年至105千年的冰川爆发之后，PI将继续使用他的2层大气环流/混合层海洋/冰盖/软流圈（AO/伊萨）模型，首先在时间上改进爆发模拟，其次继续模拟105千年至今。 气候敏感性T2 x的估算。 本研究的目的是获得气候系统T2 x敏感性的最佳估计。 PI将通过模拟皮纳图博火山爆发后两年气溶胶浓度、光学厚度、辐射强迫和气候的地理分布来做到这一点。 他将把他的24层平流层/对流层GC/PC气溶胶模型与他的12层海洋GC模型结合起来。 他将进行包括喷发在内的5次实验模拟，以及不包括喷发在内的5次控制模拟;每个模拟组的成员仅在其大气初始条件方面有所不同。 通过这种方式，PI将能够估计自然内部变化对皮纳图博后温度变化的贡献。 他将比较模拟和观察到的Pinatubo后温度变化，以确定T2 x。 人为硫酸盐气溶胶引起的气候变化综合评估。 本研究的目的是模拟平衡的气候变化所引起的5个区域源的人为硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫的综合评估模式使用的单独和集体。 为此，PI将使用他的7层对流层GC/MLO模型进行6次平衡气候变化模拟。 这项研究很重要，因为它旨在增加有关气候过程的新知识，以改善气候预测。

Abstract ATM-9522681 Schlesinger, Michael E. University of Illinois Title: Research on Greenhouse-Gases-Induced Climate Change This project will focus on the following studies: The Last Glacial-Interglacial Cycle. The objective of this research is to simulate and understand the Glacial-Interglacial Cycle. Following his success in simulating glacial onset from 115kya to 105kya, the PI will continue to use his 2-layer atmospheric general circulation/mixed-layer-ocean/ice-sheet/asthenosphere (AO/ISA) model, first to refine the onset-simulation temporally, and second to continue the simulation from 105kya to the present. Estimation of the Climate Sensitivity, T2x. The objective of this research is to obtain the best-possible estimate of the sensitivity of the climate system, T2x. The PI will do this by simulating the geographical distributions of aerosol concentrations, optical depths, radiative forcing and climate for two years following the Pinatubo eruption. He will incorporate into his 24-layer stratospheric/tropospheric GC/PC- aerosol model with his 12-layer ocean GC model. He will perform 5 experiment simulations including the eruption, and 5 control simulations excluding it; the members of each simulation set differing only in their atmospheric initial conditions. In this way the PI will be able to estimate the contribution of natural internal variability to the post-Pinatubo temperature changes. He will compare the simulated and observed post-Pinatubo temperature changes to determine T2x. Anthropogenic Sulphate Aeroqol Induced Climate Change for Integrated Assessments. The objective of this research is to simulate the equilibrium climate change induced individually and collectively by the radiative forcing of 5 regional sources of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols for use by integrated assessment models. For this objective, the PI will perform 6 equilibrium climate-change simulations with his 7-layer tropospheric GC/MLO model. This researc h is important because it seeks to add new knowledge about climate processes with the goal of improvements in climate predictions.