IAI Workshop: Inter-American Institute for Global Change Start-Up Grants, Phase I

在这项规划拨款下制定的多学科研究计划将整合低频大气变化的区域预测模型、流域水文和生态预测模型以及水库系统的最佳管理实践。这项研究工作的最终目标是评估生态和水系统对气候强迫、土地利用变化和区域水管理实践变化的潜在变化的脆弱性。巴西南部的伊瓜=E7u河地区和美国的阿拉巴马/阿巴拉契科拉/萨凡纳河地区因其相似的面积范围、土地利用和对El Ni= f10事件的气候反应而被选中进行比较。这两个地区都有大型水库工程，具有多种目的，如市政和农业供水、水电生产、水质和当地生态保护。这两个地区都有良好的水文气象和农业气象观测站网络，具有遥感数据检索能力。这些条件使预测水文气候变量成为可能，如降雨、潜在蒸散、河流流量和估计的土壤水分，然后这些变量可用于输入考虑到当地土地利用和土地覆盖模式的区域分布式水文模型，从而对当地的能量通量、土壤水分以及地表和地下径流进行预测。这些类型的预测可进一步用于生态模型，以评估气候变率对生态系统的影响，并且对于在水资源管理模型中估计与自然变率和不确定性相关的影响和风险非常有用。水管理模式的多重目标除了水力发电和城市供水外，还包括农业目标和与河流生态系统健康有关的目标。这项提议汇集了美洲全球变化研究所（IAI）成员国的与会者。美洲全球变化研究所是美国的一项倡议，旨在促进美洲科学机构就全球变化问题进行合作研究。NSF是美国政府指定的在IAI中履行美国职责的主要机构。这项多学科研究计划将结合大气变化、水文学和生态学模型，以评估大型水库系统的最佳管理实践。这项研究工作的最终目标是评估生态和水系统对天气、土地利用和区域水管理实践的潜在变化的脆弱性。巴西南部的伊瓜=E7u河地区和美国的阿拉巴马/阿巴拉契科拉/萨凡纳河地区因其相似的气候和对天气的反应而被选中进行比较。这两个地区都有大型水库工程，具有多种目的：市政和农业供水、水力发电和保护当地生态。这两个地区都有一个良好的观测站网络，当与适当的模型相结合时，可以预测降雨、河流流量和地下水位等变量。这些类型的预测可进一步用于生态模型，以评估气候变率对生态系统的影响，并且对于在水资源管理模型中估计与自然变率和不确定性相关的影响和风险非常有用。这项提议汇集了美洲全球变化研究所（IAI）成员国的与会者。美洲全球变化研究所是美国的一项倡议，旨在促进美洲科学机构在全球变化问题上的合作研究。NSF是美国政府指定的在IAI中履行美国职责的主要机构。＊＊＊

9529839 Georgakakos The multi-disciplinary research proposal developed under this planning grant will integrate regional predictive models of low-frequency atmospheric variability, predictive models of watershed hydrology and ecology, and optimal management practices of reservoir systems. The ultimate goal of the research effort is to assess ecological and water-system vulnerabilities to potential changes in weather forcing, to changes in land use, and to changes in regional water management practices. The Igua=E7u River region in southern Brazil and the Alabama/Apalachicola/Savannah River region in the United States have been selected for comparative purposes due to their similar areal extent, land use, and climate responses to El Ni=F1o events. Both regions have large reservoir projects with multiple objectives, such as municipal and agricultural water supply, the production of hydropower, and the preservation of water quality and local ecology. A good network of hydro-meteorological and agro-meteorological observing stations exists in both regions with the capability of retrieving remotely sensed data. These conditions make possible the prediction of hydroclimatological variables like rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, river flow, and estimated soil water, which could then be used for inputs to regional distributed hydrologic models that took into account local land-use and land-cover patterns to produce local predictions of energy fluxes, soil water, and surface and sub-surface runoff. These types of predictions can be further used in ecological models to assess impacts on ecosystems resulting from climate variability, and are extremely useful for when estimating the impacts and risks associated with natural variability and uncertainty in water resources management models. The multiple objectives of the water management models would include in addition to hydroelectric power production and urban water supply, agricultural objec tives and objectives related to riverine ecosystem health. This proposal brings together participants from member countries of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), a U.S. initiative to stimulate cooperative research on global change issues among the scientific institutions of the Americas. The NSF is the lead U.S. Government agency designated to carry out U.S. responsibilities within the IAI. %%% The multi-disciplinary research proposal developed under this planning grant will combine models of atmospheric variability, hydrology, and ecology in order to assess optimal management practices for large reservoir systems. The ultimate goal of the research effort is to assess ecological and water-system vulnerabilities to potential changes in weather, land use and regional water management practices. The Igua=E7u River region in southern Brazil and the Alabama/Apalachicola/Savannah River region in the United States have been selected for comparison due to their similar climates and responses to weather. Both regions have large reservoir projects with multiple objectives: municipal and agricultural water supply, the production of hydropower, and the preservation of local ecology. A good network of observing stations exists in both regions which, when combined with the appropriate models, makes possible the prediction of variables like rainfall, river flow, and ground water levels. These types of predictions can be further used in ecological models to assess impacts on ecosystems resulting from climate variability, and are extremely useful for when estimating the impacts and risks associated with natural variability and uncertainty in water resources management models. This proposal brings together participants from member countries of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), a U.S. initiative to stimulate cooperative research on global change issues among the scientific institutions of the Am ericas. The NSF is the lead U.S. Government agency designated to carry out U.S. responsibilities within the IAI. ***