Using biogeographical niche models to predict plant species responses to climate change in interaction with land use

尽管人们普遍认为大多数植物物种的分布范围会随着气候变化而变化，但物种如何响应气候变化与土地利用的相互作用以及气候变化与生物相互作用（如草食和竞争）的相互作用，仍是完全未知的。由于生物多样性探测站在三个不同气候的地点包括各种各样的土地利用类型，它们为解决这一问题提供了独特的机会。本项目旨在验证一个假设，即可以通过物种实现的生态位来预测当地的建立潜力和绩效。我们将基于控制环境下的实验、野外实验和植物区系制图数据，构建不同空间尺度下的物种基本生态位和实现生态位模型。我们将充分利用所有三个考察点的草地和森林中大多数可利用的土地利用类型，移植20个不同属的养殖植物，每个属有2个相同的物种，对比范围类型。所有物种都将通过操纵地上竞争和软体动物食草以及提高温度和减少降水来获得额外的亚样地处理。这种规模的生物地理学实验是独一无二的，将大大增加我们对植物物种的认识，因此，植物多样性将如何响应气候变化与土地利用变化的相互作用。

Although it is commonly accepted that the distribution ranges of most plant species will shift with climate change, it is completely unknown how the species will respond to the interaction of climate change with land use and of climate change with biotic interactions, such as herbivory and competition. As the biodiversity exploratories include a large variety of land use types at three sites with differing climate they offer the unique opportunity to address this topic. This project aims at testing the hypothesis that the local establishment potential and performance can be predicted from a species’ realized niche. We will construct models of the species’ fundamental niches and realized niches at different spatial scales, based on experiments in controlled environments, on an extensive experiment in the exploratories and on floristic mapping data. We will make full use of most available land use types both in grasslands and forests at all three exploratory sites and transplant raised plants of 20 different genera, each with 2 congeneric species of contrasting range types. All species will receive additional subplot treatments by manipulating aboveground competition and mollusc herbivory as well as raising temperature and reducing precipitation. A biogeographical experiment of this size is unique and will greatly increase our knowledge of how plant species, and in consequence, plant diversity will respond to climate change in interaction with changes in land use.