Climate Change of the Last 500 Years: Simulations Versus Data

9631282科罗拉多大学题目：过去500年的气候变化：模拟与数据该奖项将支持所需的科学协调，以完成一个每年一次的时间古气候时间序列的500个站点的全球数据库，并将其充分记录下来，供整个全球变化界广泛使用。该数据库将用于绘制过去500年来气候变化的时空模式图，从而提供人类活动前年际至年代际气候变化的第一个综合视图。该项目将协调数据和理论的使用，以产生新的TIMWE系列假想的火山、太阳、微量气体、对流层气溶胶、土地利用、温盐和ENSO过去400年的气候强迫。这些强迫的时间序列将被用作一套瞬变气候模型实验的输入，该实验使用了NASA GISS开发的最先进的3-D大气和大气-海洋耦合模型。对各种假设强迫的模拟响应将与使用数据库绘制的变化的时空模式进行比较。这将大大减少关于年际至世纪尺度气候变化的性质和原因(自然和人为)的不确定性。

Abstract ATM-9631282 Overpeck, Jonathan T. University of Colorado Title: Climate Change of the Last 500 Years: Simulations Versus Data This award will support the scientific coordination needed to complete a 500-site global database of annually-dated time paleoclimate time series, and document it sufficiently for broad usage by the entire global change community. This database will be used to map the spatio-temporal patterns of climatic variation over the past 500 years, and thus provide the first comprehensive view of pre-anthropogenic interannual to interdecadal climate variability. The project will coordinate the use of data and theory to produce new timwe series of hypothesized volcanic, solar, trace-gas, tropospheric aerosol, land-use, thermohaline and ENSO climate forcing over the past 400 years. These time series of forcing will then be used as input to a suite of transient climate model experiments using state-of-the-art 3-D atmospheric and coupled atmosphere-ocean models developed at NASA GISS. The simulated responses to the various hypothesized forcing will be compared to the spatio-temporal patterns of change mapped out using the database. This will make significant reductions in the uncertainty regarding the nature and causes (natural and anthropogenic) of interannual to century-scale climate variability.