Collaborative Research: Empirical Implications of Sunk Entry and Exit Costs

尽管沉没成本在解释市场结构和企业绩效方面可能起到重要作用，但关于沉没成本的大小、沉没成本在不同产品或不同类型企业之间的差异以及沉没成本是否有助于解释市场内企业绩效的持续异质性，相关的实证证据相对较少。这项研究的目的是估计一些美国制造产品的沉没进入和退出成本的大小，并测试它们是否是公司营业额和业绩模式的重要决定因素。该项目将利用1963-1992年期间美国制造业普查的数据，研究在相对较小的地理市场销售的一些产品的进入和离开过程。在这30年期间，各地理区域的人口大量流动，导致了当地市场结构的变化，因为公司因应这些不断变化的需求模式而进进出出。该项目的第一部分将测量地理市场的进入和退出比率，并使用这些周转模式来估计公司在特定产品市场面临的沉没进入和退出成本的大小。这项工作将认识到，有不同类型的进入者，包括新公司和那些从其他产品和地理市场多样化的公司，公司可以通过几个渠道进入，包括建造新工厂或改变其现有生产设施的产品组合。这些类型和进入方法中的每一种都可能涉及非常不同水平的沉没投资，从而导致不同的公司周转率。通过估算因企业类型和入账方法不同而不同的沉没成本，应该可以确定沉没成本是否是导致周转模式和企业寿命差异的重要因素。该项目的第二部分将利用沉没成本S在产品和进入类型上的估计模式来确定沉没成本是否有助于在不同产品市场中观察到的生产者异质性的数量。关于沉没成本、营业额、企业异质性水平和持续性之间的关系的预测将得到检验，这些关系是从最近的行业演化理论模型得出的。制造业普查数据也特别适合于这项工作，因为它们允许描述市场中整个生产者之间的异质性的数量。

Despite the important role that sunk costs potentially play in explaining market structure and firm performance there is relatively little empirical evidence on their magnitude, how they vary across different products or across different types of firms, and whether they are useful in explaining the persistent heterogeneity in firm performance within markets. The purpose of this research is to estimate the magnitude of sunk entry and exit costs for a number of U.S. manufactured products and test if they are an important determinant of firm turnover and performance patterns. This project will utilize data from the U.S. Census of Manufactures for the period 1963-1992 to study the entry and exit process for a number of products that are sold in relatively small geographic markets. The substantial movements in population across geographic areas over this 30 year period have produced changes in the structure of local markets as firms have entered and exited in response to these changing demand patterns. The first part of this project will measure entry and exit rates across geographic markets and use these turnover patterns to estimate the magnitude of sunk entry and exit costs faced by firms in specific product markets. The work will recognize that there are different types of entrants, including new firms and those diversifying from other product and geographic markets, and that firms can enter through several channels, including constructing new plants or altering the product mix of their existing production facilities. Each of these types and methods of entry is likely to involve very different levels of sunk investments and thus lead to different firm turnover rates. By estimating sunk costs that vary by type of firm and method of entry, it should be possible to determine if sunk costs are a significant factor generating the differences in turnover patterns and firm lifetimes. The second part of the project will utilize the estimated patterns of sunk cost s across products and entry types to determine if sunk costs contribute to the amount of producer heterogeneity observed within different product markets. Predictions will be tested about the relationships among sunk costs, turnover, and the level and persistence of firm heterogeneity that are derived from recent theoretical models of industry evolution. The Census of Manufactures data are also uniquely suited to this endeavor because they allow the characterization of the amount of heterogeneity among the entire set of producers in a market.