The Evolution of Research on Climate Change, 1946-1978

人类活动可能影响全球气候的发现可能会对经济、政治和社会产生重大影响。决策者和公众对全球变暖这一复杂话题的科学共识是如何形成的（或尚未形成的）感到关切是正确的。科学史家还没有谈到气候变化研究的历史。这段历史并不吸引人：一堆杂乱无章、互不相干的结果没有形成宏大的综合，只能得出部分和临时的结论。对这段历史的研究可以阐明基础科学是如何在一个需要实际结果的主题上进行的，即使在确定的理论和方法遥不可及的情况下。该项目的第一阶段，考察了19世纪90年代至今的气候变化研究历史。随后又进行了一项详细的研究，解释了历史上的一个重大转折点：科学家如何在20世纪50年代证明，工业排放的二氧化碳很可能在下个世纪导致全球变暖。该项目的下一阶段将用这笔赠款来完成，研究从1946年到1978年这一领域的科学发展。调查将集中在具体情况上，例如气候的计算机模拟、过去气候的研究以及尘埃对大气温度的影响。已发表的科学论文将是数据的主要来源，并辅以流行文章和书籍、档案研究、口述历史访谈以及从历史参与者那里征集的其他回顾性信息。研究结果将通过面向学术和一般读者的文章、万维网上的一个网站以及最终出版的一本书来传播。

The discovery that human activities may affect global climate could turn out to have major economic, political and social implications. Policy makers and the public are rightly concerned about how scientific agreement has developed (and has not developed) on the complicated topic of global warming. Historians of science have not yet addressed the history of research on climate change. The history is uninviting: a confused tangle of disparate results leading to no grand synthesis, but only to partial and provisional conclusions. A study of this history can illuminate how basic science is conducted on a topic where practical results are demanded even while definitive theories and methods are beyond reach. In the first phase of this project, the history of climate change research from the 1890s to the present was surveyed. This was followed by a detailed study explaining a major turning point in the history: how scientists demonstrated during the 1950s that carbon dioxide released by industry might well cause global warming in the next century. The next phase of this project, to be accomplished with this grant, will examine scientific developments in the field from 1946 through 1978. Investigation will focus on specific cases, such as computer modeling of climate, the study of past climates, and the influence of dust on atmospheric temperatures. Published scientific papers will be the primary source of data, augmented by popular articles and books, archival research, and oral history interviews and other retrospective information solicited from participants in the history. Results will be disseminated through articles for scholarly and general audiences, a site on the World-Wide Web, and, eventually, a book.