Improvement in QPF of Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes Using Remote Sensing

美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一项跨部门活动，旨在执行和实施必要的研究，以改善向全国提供的天气服务。根据该计划，国家科学基金会、国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）、国家航空航天局（NASA）和海军研究办公室将联合评估和支持USWRP的高优先级研究。USWRP的主要目标之一是进行必要的研究，以改进飓风的轨迹和强度预报。这项研究是史密斯博士和威斯康辛大学的格雷戈里·黎波里教授合作进行的。Smith博士是卫星信息使用和解读方面的专家，Tripoli博士的专长是中尺度数值模拟领域。这项研究的重点是更好地了解大西洋飓风的特征，并改进对其轨迹、强度和降雨量的预测。这项研究包括将时间序列的卫星湿度和风产品同化到威斯康辛大学非流体静力模拟系统的云解析版本中。由于卫星观测可以识别中尺度结构，特别是在湿度和风场中，它们反过来调节模式预报的中尺度降水结构，通过开始在常规数据空洞最大的开放海洋上进行预报，主要研究人员希望在确定登陆时间和位置方面取得更好的技能。威斯康星大学气象卫星合作研究所（CIMSS）的运行卫星探测仪检索系统产生的垂直分辨率的湿度剖面，以及CIMSS产生的垂直分辨率的云轨迹和水汽风，将被推动并混合到1998年和1999年飓风季节的飓风案例模型预报中。1995年欧泊尔飓风事件将在1998/1999年季节之前进行研究，以便准备在两个完整季节进行近乎实时的模拟实验。该研究将寻求在整个风暴生命周期内对路径强度因子的预测和定量降水预报（QPF）的改进。为了确定数据同化的影响，并评估和验证登陆前后QPF的改进，将使用来自特殊传感器微波图像的被动微波测量和来自即将到来的热带降雨测量任务的被动微波降水雷达测量相结合，并在佛罗里达州立大学Smith教授的指导下使用基于物理的降水剖面检索算法。这项研究的成功完成将可能导致改进利用卫星先进数据预报飓风的技术***

9714361Smith The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Office of Naval Research are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. One of the primary goals of the USWRP is to perform the research necessary to improve track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes. This research effort is a collaboration between Dr. Smith and Professor Gregory Tripoli of the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Smith is an expert in the use and interpretation of satellite information and Dr. Tripoli's expertise is in the realm of mesoscale numerical modeling. This research focuses on better understanding of the characteristics of Atlantic hurricanes and the improvement in the prediction of their track, intensity and rainfall. The research includes the assimilation of time-sequenced satellite moisture and wind products into a cloud resolving version of the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System. Since satellite observations can identify meso-beta scale structures, particularly in the moisture and wind fields, which in turn modulate the meso-beta-scale precipitation structures of the model forecasts, by beginning forecasts over the open ocean where conventional data voids are greatest, the Principal Investigators expect to achieve better skill in determining the timing and position of landfall. Vertically resolved moisture profiles produced by the operational satellite sounder retrieval system at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), along with vertically resolved cloud-tracked and water vapor winds also produced at CIMSS will be nudged and blended into model forecasts for hurricane cases from the 1998 and 1999 hurricane season. The 1995 hurricane Opal event will be studied prior to the 1998/1999 season in preparation for near real-time modeling experiments during the two full seasons. The research will seek improvements to both prediction of track-intensity factors, and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) during entire storm life cycles. To determine the impact of the data assimilation, and to assess and validate the improvements in QPF both before and after landfall, passive microwave measurements from Special Sensor Microwave Imagery and combined passive microwave-precipitation radar measurements from the upcoming Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will be used with physically-based precipitation profile retrieval algorithms operated at Florida State University under the direction of Professor Smith. Successful completion of this research will potentially lead to techniques for improved use of advanced data from satellites for forecasting of hurricanes.***