Improvement in QPF of Landfalling Atlantic Hurricanes Using Remote Sensing

9714354的黎波里美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一个跨部门的活动，旨在执行和实施必要的研究，以改善天气服务的交付给国家。 根据这一方案，国家科学基金会、国家海洋和大气管理局（诺阿）、国家航空航天局（美国航天局）和海军研究办公室正在联合评估和支持美国水资源项目高度优先的研究。 USWRP的主要目标之一是进行必要的研究，以改善飓风的路径和强度预报。这项研究工作是史密斯博士和威斯康星州大学的格雷戈里·的黎波里教授合作进行的。 史密斯博士是卫星信息使用和解释方面的专家，的黎波里博士的专长是中尺度数值建模领域。 这项研究的重点是更好地了解大西洋飓风的特点，并改进其路径、强度和降雨量的预测。 这项研究包括同化的时间序列卫星水分和风产品到云解决版本的威斯康星州非静力学模拟系统的大学。 由于卫星观测可以识别中-β尺度结构，特别是在湿度和风场，这反过来又调节了模型预测的中-β尺度降水结构，通过在常规数据空白最大的开阔海洋上开始预测，首席研究员希望在确定登陆时间和位置方面获得更好的技能。威斯康星州大学气象卫星研究合作研究所（气象卫星研究合作研究所）业务卫星探测器检索系统产生的垂直分辨湿度分布图，沿着气象卫星研究合作研究所也产生的垂直分辨云跟踪和水蒸气风，将被轻推并混合到1998年和1999年飓风季节飓风情况的模型预测中。 将在1998/1999年飓风季之前对1995年的“蛋白石”飓风进行研究，以便为两个完整飓风季期间的近实时模拟试验做准备。该研究将寻求改进跟踪强度因子的预测和整个风暴生命周期中的定量降水预报（QPF）。 为了确定数据同化的影响，并评估和验证QPF在登陆前后的改进，将在史密斯教授的指导下，使用来自特殊传感器微波图像的被动微波测量和来自即将到来的热带降雨测量使命的组合被动微波-降水雷达测量，以及佛罗里达州立大学运行的基于物理的降水廓线检索算法。 这项研究的成功完成将有可能导致改进利用卫星先进数据预报飓风的技术。

9714354Tripoli The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Office of Naval Research are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. One of the primary goals of the USWRP is to perform the research necessary to improve track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes. This research effort is a collaboration between Dr. Smith and Professor Gregory Tripoli of the University of Wisconsin. Dr. Smith is an expert in the use and interpretation of satellite information and Dr. Tripoli's expertise is in the realm of mesoscale numerical modeling. This research focuses on better understanding of the characteristics of Atlantic hurricanes and the improvement in the prediction of their track, intensity and rainfall. The research includes the assimilation of time-sequenced satellite moisture and wind products into a cloud resolving version of the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System. Since satellite observations can identify meso-beta scale structures, particularly in the moisture and wind fields, which in turn modulate the meso-beta-scale precipitation structures of the model forecasts, by beginning forecasts over the open ocean where conventional data voids are greatest, the Principal Investigators expect to achieve better skill in determining the timing and position of landfall. Vertically resolved moisture profiles produced by the operational satellite sounder retrieval system at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), along with vertically resolved cloud-tracked and water vapor winds also produced at CIMSS will be nudged and blended into model forecasts for hurricane cases from the 1998 and 1999 hurricane season. The 1995 hurricane Opal event will be studied prior to the 1998/1999 season in preparation for near real-time modeling experiments during the two full seasons. The research will seek improvements to both prediction of track-intensity factors, and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) during entire storm life cycles. To determine the impact of the data assimilation, and to assess and validate the improvements in QPF both before and after landfall, passive microwave measurements from Special Sensor Microwave Imagery and combined passive microwave-precipitation radar measurements from the upcoming Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will be used with physically-based precipitation profile retrieval algorithms operated at Florida State University under the direction of Professor Smith. Successful completion of this research will potentially lead to techniques for improved use of advanced data from satellites for forecasting of hurricanes.***