Distortion of Information During Decisions

在做决定的过程中，人们倾向于歪曲新信息，使其看起来比实际情况更有利于领先的选择。目前的研究从几个方面探讨了这种信息的预先决策扭曲。首先，它的原因是什么？为了保持所有评估的一致性，为了减少工作量，或者为了在朝着明确决策的成功进展的基础上保持更积极的情绪，扭曲是一种决策准确性的牺牲吗？或者，使用一致性作为准确性的误导信号是否会造成失真？其次，它的含义是什么？操纵信息的顺序或格式（而不是内容）会影响人们的选择吗？答案很可能是肯定的。第三，信息失真的极限是什么？它是否延伸到对单个选择的评估，以及对选择的评估，对客观决策的评估，对未来事件的预测，对非常精确的信息，如单个数字（如价格）的评估？最后，人们如何才能消除或至少减少信息失真，使他们不会最终选择较差的选择？仅仅警告就能奏效吗？多属性效用分析工具能防止失真吗？最后，在一个群体中做决定是有益的（还是有害的）？在许多重要的实际决策中，信息是按顺序获得的（例如，招聘、市场调查和医疗诊断）。此外，组织的压力，证明下一步的信息收集序列可能会增加失真（而不是检测有偏见的判断）。总而言之，在现实的、后果性的情况下，信息扭曲现象对决策有重大影响。

During a decision, people tend to distort new information to make it seem more favorable to the leading alternative than it really is. The present research explores this predecisional distortion of information in several ways. First, what are its causes? Is distortion a sacrifice of decision accuracy in order to preserve consistency among all evaluations, to reduce effort, or to maintain a more positive mood based on a successful progression toward a clear decision? Alternatively, is distortion caused by using consistency as a misguided signal of accuracy? Second, what are its implications? Can manipulating the order or format (but not the content) of information influence the alternative that people choose? The answer may well be yes. Third, what are the limits of information distortion? Does it extend to the evaluation of single alternatives as well as to choices, to objective decisions, to predictions of future events, to very precise information like single numbers (e.g., prices)? Finally, how can people eliminate or at least reduce information distortion so that they do not end up choosing an inferior alternative? Will warning alone work? Does the apparatus of multiattribute utilities analysis prevent distortion? And last, does deciding in a group help (or hurt)? In many important real decisions, information is acquired sequentially (e.g., filling a job, market research, and medical diagnosis). Furthermore, organizational pressure to justify the next step in the information-gathering sequence may enhance distortion (rather than detecting biased judgment). In sum, there are material implications of the information distortion phenomenon for decision making in real, consequential situations.