MOTI: Real Options for Management of Technological Innovations

9732470 Ramesh风险在技术创新管理中是不可避免的。但是，关于采用财务风险管理技术（例如“实物期权”的估值）来反映研发项目管理灵活性的资料很少。在提出的研究中，将测试期权定价理论在（最近解除管制的）电力公用事业行业的实际项目管理中的适用性。特别是，Dixit & Pindyck， Grenadier & Weiss和Mitchell & Hamilton开发的实物期权方法将用于分析选定的电力公用事业行业创新管理问题。提出了一种新的实物期权方法来评估公用事业行业的研发投资选择。该方法考虑了公用事业行业特有的因素，包括新的竞争环境；技术的成熟性质和员工抵制工作实践变化的危险，这可能是采用新技术所必需的。将开发一个实现此方法的软件包。研究生课程和研讨会基于这项工作的跨学科产业为导向的“能源市场”计划将被引入。研究结果和方法也将适用于对创新情况的其他管理。

9732470 Ramesh Risk is inevitable in management of technological innovations. However, little information exists on the adoption of financial risk management techniques (such as valuation of "real options") to reflect managerial flexibility in R&D projects. In the proposed research, the applicability of option pricing theory to real-world project management in the (recently deregulated) electric utility industry will be tested. In particular, the real options methodologies developed by Dixit & Pindyck, Grenadier & Weiss and by Mitchell & Hamilton will be used to analyze selected electric utility industry innovation management problems. A new real options methodology for evaluating R&D investment alternatives in the utility industry is proposed. This proposed methodology consider factors unique to utility industry including the new competitive environment; the matured nature of technological and the danger of employee resistance to changes in work practices, which may be necessary for adoption of new technology. A software package that implements this methodology will be developed. Graduate courses and seminars based on this work for the interdisciplinary industry-oriented "energy markets" program will be introduced. The findings and the methodology will also be adapted to other management of innovation situations.