Doctoral Dissertation Research: Integrated Assessment and Projection of Land-Use/Cover Change in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region of Mexico

全球环境变化在许多重要方面对人类构成了挑战。热带砍伐森林是最紧迫的问题之一，因为它作为温室气体的源和汇、生物多样性的储存库、当地气候的决定因素以及世界范围内迅速增长的人口的资源基地发挥着重要作用。到目前为止，关于热带森林砍伐的大部分工作都集中在与政策相关性无关的科学上。这项拟议的研究试图纠正这种情况，它开发了一个明确的政策导向模型，以预测墨西哥南部剩余的大片热带森林之一的热带森林砍伐趋势和情景。由于这一领域受到越来越多的移民和资源开采的影响，资源管理者和机构面临着一系列令人眼花缭乱的短期和长期决策。因此，该模型认为砍伐森林是农民在一系列复杂的生物物理和社会经济环境中做出决策的结果。将开发一种新型的模拟模型，这种模型既能捕捉局势的“现实”，又能提供与政策相关的产出。该模型通过以下方式做到这一点：(1)考察个人决策如何受到环境和社会经济约束的影响；(2)纳入其他变化的明确时空模式；(3)评估信息价值和不确定性的作用；(4)允许利益攸关方和政策制定者评估替代土地利用和体制战略的领导人。该模型不是概念性的，而是基于家庭调查、档案研究和空间数据，包括航空摄影、卫星图像以及土地利用和生物物理特征地图。

Global environmental change confronts humankind in many importantways. Tropical deforestation is one of the most pressing problems becauseof its significant roles as a source and sink of greenhouse gases, adepository of biotic diversity, a determinant of local climate, and as theresource base for a rapidly growing population worldwide. Much of the workon tropical deforestation to date has focused on science independent ofpolicy relevance. The proposed research seeks to redress this situation.It develops an explicitly policy-oriented model to project trends andscenarios of tropical deforestation for one of the remaining large blocks oftropical forests in southern Mexico. As this area is subject to growingimmigration and resource extraction, resource managers and institutions are faced with a bewildering array of immediate and longer term decisions. The model therefore considers deforestation as the result of peasant farmerdecision making in the context of an array of complex biophysical andsocioeconomic environments. A new type of simulation model will bedeveloped, one that captures the "reality" of the situation but yet providesoutputs that are policy relevant. The model does so by: (1) examining howindividual decision making is affected by environmental and socioeconomicconstraints; (2) incorporating explicit spatial and temporal patterns offorest change; (3) assessing the role of the value of information anduncertainty; and (4) permitting stakeholders and policy makers to evaluatescenarios of alternative land-use and institutional strategies. The modelis not conceptually derived but based on household surveys, archivalresearch, and spatial data including aerial photography, satellite imagery,and maps of land-use and biophysical characteristics.