SGER: Real Time Multi-model Superensemble Forecasts for Atlantic Hurricanes of 1999

该奖项是作为探索性研究的小额赠款颁发的。Krishnamurti博士将在使用多模型超级集合预报来预测飓风路径和强度方面，扩展一些有趣的前期工作。该方法使用简单的回归过程将多个模型的过去表现与观察到的“分析”状态相关联。在一个控制期内，所有的多模式结果相对于该分析被回归，然后将统计量应用于一个预测期，并产生一个加权组合，该组合是超级集合。在最初的工作中，超级组合的表现总是好于个别模型的预测。根据这一奖项，克里希纳穆蒂博士将实时进行超级集合预报，作为对该方法的进一步测试。在1999年业务飓风季节结束后，他和他的同事将分析和评估1999年的超级集合预报，并探索在他们的超级集合预报中使用简单回归以外的统计方法的有效性。

The award is being made as a Small Grant for Exploratory Research. Dr. Krishnamurti will extend some intriguing preliminary work on the use of multi-model superensemble forecasts for the prediction of hurricane track and intensity. The method relates the past performance of the multiple models to an observed "analysis" state using a simple regression procedure. All of the multi-model results are regressed with respect to this analysis for a control period and then the statistics are applied to a forecast period and a weighted combination is produced which is the superensemble. In the initial work, the superensemble has always outperformed the individual model forecasts. Under this award, Dr. Krishnamurti will carry out the superensemble forecasts in real-time as a further test of the method. After the 1999 operational hurricane season is over, he and his colleagues will analyze and evaluate the 1999 superensemble forecasts and explore the efficacy of using statistical methods other than simple regression in their superensemble forecasts.