Collaborative Research: On the Effects of Economic Development on Population Growth

在这一拟议的多层次和纵向家庭数据中，来自1968-1982年期间印度4 500多个农村家庭的全国大概率抽样，以及涵盖1999年期间的新数据，与来自政府来源和卫星的补充地区具体数据合并，将用于全面重新审查经济增长对家庭和个人收入分配、经济流动性以及家庭的形成和解体的影响。合并数据的一个独特和关键的特点是，它们记录了印度的一段时间，这段时间与一个自然实验密切相关，在这个实验中，经济发展的源泉-“绿色革命”-对人口来说是外生的，是可以衡量的，而且由于自然条件，在地理上是有选择性的。因此，在农业生产率增长的推动下，经济发展对人力资本收益、投资和其他家庭行为的影响是不同的。本研究的主旨是，在评价经济变化对个人福利的影响时，必须考虑到个人如何被划分为家庭，以及家庭如何通过转移支付、市场和地方政治制度相互作用。该项目的具体目标包括：（a）更好地了解家庭行为和家庭内部的分配情况;（B）评估家庭间转移对动态背景下的收入保障和投资的贡献;（c）估计家庭解体和组成的决定因素，特别侧重于技术变革的影响;（d）评估家庭内部转移对收入保障和投资的贡献;（e）评估家庭内部转移对收入保障和投资的贡献;（f）评估家庭内部转移对收入保障和投资的贡献;（g）评估家庭内部转移对收入保障和（d）评价嫁妆在影响针对不同性别的人力资本投资和家庭资源分配方面的作用，以及（e）评价地方政府在分配土地资源和其他公益物方面的作用，同时注意分配和效率标准，特别注意位于这些新的调查将基于上一个项目工作中使用的新一轮调查面板数据的可用性。新的数据不仅将分析的时间范围又延长了17年，使时间范围的总跨度超过30年，而且提供了特别适合于在动态背景下分析住户的新信息。特别是，新数据提供的信息与描述家庭和住户关系的新框架更加一致，并将首次在小组中包括分离住户，以及关于所有家庭成员婚姻和住户分离历史的追溯性信息。这些新颖和独特的家庭数据将特别有助于详细探讨家庭和家庭关系，以及经济变化如何在长期和短期内影响家庭和家庭关系以及家庭决定的结果。新数据还将提供有关那些村庄治理结构的追溯性数据，从而能够建立一个30年来约250个村庄的村级数据集，用以探讨村庄治理是否以及如何影响家庭之间的资源分配、共同土地使用和森林资源开发。这些独特的数据跨越了很长的时期，但提供了个人、住户和家庭一级的详细情况，因此，这些数据的提供将为评估增长和发展以及住户行为的分配效应的理论提供更好的经验基础。

In this proposed multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4500 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1982 and new data covering the period through 1999, merged with supplementary area-specific data from governmental sources and from satellites, will be used to reexamine comprehensively the effects of economic growth on the distribution of incomes across households and individuals, on economic mobility and on the formation and dissolution of households. A unique and critical feature of the merged data is that they document a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development - the "green revolution" - was exogenous to the population, was measurable, and, due to natural conditions, was geographically selective. It is thus possible to document how economic development, propelled by agricultural productivity growth, differentially affected human capital returns and investments and other household behavior.The underlying theme of this work is that the evaluation of economic change on individual welfare must importantly account for how individuals are grouped into households and how household interact through transfers, markets, and local political institutions. The particular aims of the project include (a) the achievement of a better understanding of household behavior and intra-household distribution, (b) an assessment of the contributions of interhousehold transfers to income security and investment in a dynamic context, (c) estimation of the determinants of household break-up and formation, with particular focus on the impact of technical change, (d) an evaluation of the role of dowry in affecting investments in gender-specific human capital and the distribution of resources across households, and (e) the evaluation of the role of local governments in allocating land resources and other public goods with attention to both distributive and efficiency criteria and with particular attention to forest resources situated on common lands.These new inquiries will be based on the availability of a new survey round of the panel data used in the prior project work. The new data not only expand the time frame for analysis another 17 years, for a total span of temporal coverage of more than 30 years, but provide new information particularly suited to analyses of households in a dynamic context. In particular, the new data provide information more consistent with new frameworks describing family and household relations and will include split-off households in the panel for the first time as well as retrospective information on the marriages of all family members and household division histories. These novel and unique household data will in particular permit a detailed exploration of family and household relations and how these and the outcomes of family decisions are affected over the long as well as the short-run by economic change. The new data will also provide retrospective data on the governance structures of the villages, enabling the construction of a village-level data set of approximately 250 villages over 30 years with which to explore whether and how village governance affects the distribution of resources across households, common land use and the exploitation of forest resources. The availability of these unique data spanning a long time-period yet providing detail at the individual, household level and family level will thus provide an improved empirical basis for assessing theories of the distributional effects of growth and development as well as of household behavior.