The Effects of Economic Development on Population Growth

在研究全球经济的长期演变过程中，一个主要而长期存在的问题是经济发展和具体的人力资源计划干预对人口增长变化的贡献的相对重要性。这个问题不仅与对全球变化的理解有关，而且对如何在直接影响人口结果的项目（如计划生育干预）和增加总体资源的更广泛的发展项目之间分配资源这一基本政策问题也有重大影响。该项目将通过对印度独特的家庭数据来源的分析，提供定量证据，证明经济增长、技术变革和人力资源项目投资增加对影响人口增长的相对重要性。在本项目中，将使用从印度4000多户农村家庭的大规模全国概率样本中获得的新获得的多层次和纵向家庭数据，这些数据涵盖1968-1981年期间，并与补充的特定地区数据合并，以全面检查经济发展和方案干预对人口变化的影响。该调查记录了印度的一段时间，这段时间与自然实验密切相关，在这段时间里，经济发展的来源，高产种子品种的引进和改进，外源性地影响了印度可以种植新种子的地区的财富和收入、教育回报率、工资和价格。这些数据将用于量化和比较印度不同地区在家庭动态模型背景下农村生育率和死亡率的水平和变化，这些地区不同程度地暴露于新技术所带来的机会。根据对这些模型的计量经济学分析，还将确定经济发展影响这些人口结果的机制，例如增加收入、改变重返学校的比率或改变儿童和妇女时间的生产价值。这些数据将用于衡量扣除经济机会变化的教育、卫生和计划生育方案对生育率和死亡率的影响，使用的方法将考虑到这些方案的非随机分布。＊＊＊

9308836 Rosenzweig A major and long-standing issue in the study of the long-term evolution of the global economy is the relative importance of the contributions of economic development and specific human resource program interventions to changes in population growth. This question not only is relevant to the understanding of global change but has a major bearing on a fundamental policy question of how resources should be allocated between programs that directly affect demographic outcomes, such as family planning interventions, and broader development programs that increase overall resources. This project will provide quantitative evidence from the analysis of unique source of household data from India on the relative importance of economic growth, technological change and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting population growth. In this project newly available multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4,000 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data, will be used to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on population change. The survey documents a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high-yield seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to quantify and compare across districts in India differentially exposed to the opportunities presented by the new technologies the level and change in rural fertility and mortality within the context of a dynamic model of the household. Based on econometric analyses of the models, the mechanisms by which economic development affects these demographic outcomes, such as by increasing i ncomes, changing the rates of return to schooling or altering the productive values of children's and women's time, will also be identified. The data will be used to measure the impact of education, health and family planning programs, net of changes in economic opportunities, on fertility and mortality using methods that will take into account the non-random distribution of the programs. ***