Collecting and Utilizing Gubernatorial Approval Ratings

在了解公众对政府首脑（或在某些国家，执政党）政绩的认可方面已经取得了相当大的进展。在美国和其他一些国家，“受欢迎程度”民意调查每月进行一次，如果不是更频繁的话，为公众认可的性质、原因和后果的时间序列分析提供了足够的数据。然而，尽管民调机构从20世纪50年代开始偶尔调查州长的表现，从20世纪80年代中期开始相当定期地调查州长的表现，但了解行政政治这方面的一系列极好的测试地点——美国50个州——并没有得到利用。在研究文献中，州长的批准并没有完全被忽视。然而，在这一点上，试图在大范围内测试州长受欢迎程度的模式还处于起步阶段，还有很多工作要做。同样，州选举模型也可以通过纳入州长的支持率来重新制定和重新测试，并且可以测试目前无法估量的模型。州长批准数据未得到充分利用的主要原因是没有这些数据的综合档案。然而，其中一个PIs已经做了一个很好的开始，他收集了所有50个州的州长支持率，总共超过1500个。目前的资金将填补空白，以确定是否有更多的民意调查结果；如果有，访问它们；建立综合行政审批数据档案；并召开一个会议，重点是州长批准研究。为了实现这些目标，有必要联系多达50个投票机构。询问早期的民意调查，特别是1980年代以前的民意调查也很重要。同样重要的是建立一个或多或少自动的机制来取得今后的投票结果。最后，数据收集目前存在于纸上。为将其发展成适合电子储存的系统提供了支助。数据和会议将有助于至少两个领域的工作。首先，他们将增进对行政审批以及审批与选举之间关系的理解。其次，它们将有助于对州政治的研究，在州政治中，某些形式的研究，如对州长批准的研究，仅限于对一个或少数州的研究。最后，值得注意的是，如果没有提议的那种努力，要存档的数据不可能无限期地保存；如果现在不收集，这些数据将不可挽回地丢失。

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the public approval of the performance of the head of government (or, in some countries, the governing party). In the United States and some other countries, "popularity" polls are conducted monthly, if not more often, yielding sufficient data for time-series analyses of the properties, causes, and consequences of public approval. Yet a superb set of testing sites for understanding this aspect of executive politics, the 50 American states, is not being utilized, even though pollsters have been inquiring about gubernatorial performance sporadically since the 1950s and fairly regularly since the mid-1980s.Gubernatorial approval has not been totally ignored in the research literature. At this point, though, attempts to test models of gubernatorial popularity across a large cross-section of states are in their infancy, and much remains to be done. Likewise, state election models could well be reformulated and retested by incorporating gubernatorial approval rates, and models could be tested that are currently inestimable.The primary reason why data on gubernatorial approval has been underutilized is that no comprehensive file of these data has been available. However, one of the PIs has made an excellent start by assembling gubernatorial approval ratings for all 50 states, more that 1500 ratings in all. Funding, at present, will fill in gaps to determine whether additional poll results are available; if so, to access them; to create an integrated gubernatorial approval data file; and to hold a conference focused on gubernatorial approval research.To accomplish these goals, it is necessary to contact as many as 50 polling organizations. It is also important to inquire about early polls, especially those from periods prior to the 1980s. No less important is to establish a more or less automatic mechanism for obtaining future poll results. Finally, the data collection currently exists on paper. Support is provided to develop this into a system appropriate for electronic storage.The data and conference will contribute to work in at least tow areas. First, they will enhance understanding of executive approval and the relationship between approval and elections. Second, they will contribute to the study of state politics, where some forms of research, such as on gubernatorial approval, have been limited to the study of one or a small number of states. Finally, it is relevant to note that the data to be archived are unlikely to be maintained indefinitely in the absence of an effort such as that proposed; if not collected now, the data would be irretrievably lost.