Term Limits in the State Legislatures: Analysis of a 50-State Survey and Collateral Data

任期限制是自20世纪60年代和70年代立法现代化运动以来州立法机构最重大的创新。目前，任期限制已在11个州生效；2002年至2008年期间，还将有7个州生效。到目前为止，已有数百名议员被阻止竞选连任。反过来，新的立法者将在短短六年后被迫下台。立法机构也受到了影响，因为任期有限的立法机构不能再严重依赖资历来挑选领导人。由于任期限制是新的，几乎没有证据表明其影响。有一项涉及50个州的综合性研究，但它是在1995年进行的，当时还没有任何立法者被赶下台。其他研究现在已经开始出现，但它们通常是基于一两个立法机构。现在11个州的任期限制已经生效，其他州也很快加入了限制名单，可以更全面地衡量影响。这个项目利用了一项针对50个州的新的立法者调查，以及关于立法者的选举数据和人口统计数据。它审查选举效果(例如，竞争)、影响模式(例如，行政立法关系)和程序效果(例如，制宪服务)。该方法包括长期比较(以先前的调查为基础)，以及期限限制状态与非期限限制状态之间的比较。多元统计方法允许调查人员控制可能的混杂因素，包括立法者本身、州和议院以及立法区的特征。这项研究是学术政治学家与全国州议会会议、州政府委员会和州立法领袖基金会合作项目的一部分。通过这种合作，预计将向立法机构提供相当大的反馈。特别是，小组成员将确定和评估各州适应任期限制的方式，并将这一信息传播给所有任期受限的州。不受任期限制的州也将受益于了解并可能采用新实施的培训、专业发展和程序改革。

Term limits are the most significant innovation in state legislatures since the legislative modernization movement of the 1960s and 1970s. Currently, term limits have taken effect in 11 states; they will go into effect in seven more between 2002 and 2008. By now, hundreds of legislators have been prevented from running for re-election. New legislators, in turn, will be forced from office after as few as six years. Legislative organization has also been affected, as term limited legislatures can no longer rely heavily on seniority to pick their leaders.Because term limits are new, there is little evidence about their effects. There has been one comprehensive, 50-state study, but it was carried out in 1995, before any legislators were actually turned out of office. Other studies have now begun to appear, but they have typically been based on one or two legislatures. Now that term limits are in effect in 11 states, with others shortly joining the list, the effects can be gauged more fully.This project draws on a new, 50-state survey of legislators along with election data and demographic data about the legislators. It examines electoral effects (e.g., competition), influence patterns (e.g., executive-legislative relations), and procedural effects (e.g., constituent service). The methodology includes over-time comparisons (using the earlier survey as a base) as well as comparisons between term limited and non-term limited states. Multivariate statistical methods allow the investigators to control for possible confounding factors, including characteristics of the legislators themselves, of states and chambers, and of legislative districts.The research is part of a cooperative venture between academic political scientists and the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Council of State Governments, and the State Legislative Leaders Foundation. Through this cooperation, it is anticipated that there will be considerable feedback to the legislatures. In particular, team members will identify and evaluate ways in which various states have adapted to term limits and disseminate this information to all term limited states. Non-term limited states will also benefit from learning about and possibly adopting newly implemented training, professional development, and procedural changes.