Collaborative Research: Punctuated Equilibrium, Ripeness, and Conflict Resolution of International Rivalries

本研究发展了一个大政策变化的理论，具体应用于国际竞争的冲突解决。大规模政策变化理论本身就是间断均衡政策方法的一部分。该模型将首先处理冲突解决和政策文献中的两个关键概念，即“成熟度”和“机会之窗”。该研究形式化并测试了包含机会之窗变量的模型，并使用机会之窗概念对成熟度进行概念化。从一般政策模型中，研究人员推导出一个子模型，该模型适用于解决长期的国家间冲突，产生可测试的命题，可以在持久的竞争和较小的国家竞争的代表性样本的背景下进行检验。该项目的具体成果包括：1)间断平衡模型的正式理论；2)大型政策变化的具体模式；3)严格规范机会之窗和成熟度概念；4)解决国际竞争的间断均衡模型；5)与最广泛使用的国家间竞争数据集兼容的冲突解决新数据；6)对1816-1992年期间竞争中冲突解决相关条件的一系列实证分析。这项研究有望大大提高我们对该主题的理解，并为大量对该主题感兴趣的学者提供一个数据库。

This research develops a theory of large policy change, with specific application to conflict resolution of international rivalries. The theory of large policy change is itself part of the punctuated equilibrium approach to policy. The model will first address two key concepts in the conflict resolution and policy literature namely "ripeness" and "window of opportunity." The research formalizes and tests models that incorporate window of opportunity variables and uses the window of opportunity concept to conceptualize ripeness. From the general policy model, the investigators derive a sub-model that applies to the resolution of long-standing interstate conflicts which yields testable propositions that can be examined in the context of enduring rivalries and a representative sample of lesser state rivalries. Specific outcomes of the project include: 1) a formal theory of punctuated equilibrium models; 2) a specific model of large policy change; 3) rigorous specification of the window of opportunity and ripeness concepts; 4) a punctuated equilibrium model of international rivalry resolution; 5) new data on conflict resolution compatible with the most widely used data set on interstate rivalries; and, 6) a series of empirical analyses on the conditions associated with conflict resolution in rivalries over the period 1816-1992.This investigation promises to enhance substantially our understanding of the topic and to provide a database for use by a large number of scholars interested in the topic.