The Development of Thinking: Inductive Inference in Young Children

从已知到未知的概括，或归纳推理，是人类思维的一个重要组成部分。例如，如果一个人知道知更鸟有中空的骨头，她会认为老鹰也有中空的骨头吗？推断蝙蝠也有中空的骨头合理吗？知更鸟和鹰的哪些特征对推断鹰有（或没有）空心骨头很重要？这些属性的重要性不同吗？孩子们又是如何学习哪些属性对推断生物特性最有预测性的呢？我们之前的研究表明，幼儿基于比较实体之间的总体相似性来诱导生物特性，而青春期前依赖于单一的最具预测性的信息来源，如生物种类或遗传信息。在这个项目中，我们将研究幼儿在推断生物特性时如何结合不同的信息来源，以及他们如何获得依赖单一最具预测性的信息来源的能力。具体地说，我们将估计不同年龄段不同信息来源的重要性。我们还将研究从幼儿的归纳（主要基于整体相似性）到青春期前的归纳（主要基于大多数预测属性）的转变。最后，我们将研究归纳推理作为学习函数的变化。在项目过程中，儿童和学龄前儿童（3-4岁、5-6岁、7-8岁和11-12岁）将参与归纳推理和学习研究。前者将包括一个单独的课程，参与者将解决归纳问题，而后者将包括6个学习课程，间隔在两周的时间内。在每次会议上，参与者都会遇到归纳问题，并就他们的推理是否正确提供反馈。这些学习研究的目标是确定儿童如何发展对哪些属性最能预测推断生物学特性的理解。该项目将有助于我们理解人类思维的发展，特别是归纳推理和概念形成。此外，该项目可能对教学理论和科学的学习和教学具有重要意义，因为它将详细说明当儿童不了解大多数预测属性时，他们是如何思考的，以及这些属性的知识如何改变他们的思维。

Generalization from known to the unknown, or inductive inference, is an important component of human thinking. For example, if one learned that robins have hollow bones, would she think that eagles also have hollow bones? Is it reasonable to infer that bats have hollow bones too? Which attributes of robins and eagles are important for inferring that eagles do (or do not) have hollow bones? Do these attributes differ in their importance? And how do children learn which attributes are most predictive for inferring biological properties? Our prior research indicated that young children induce biological properties based on the overall similarity between compared entities, whereas preadolescents rely on a single most predictive source of information, such as biological kind or inheritance information. In this project, we will examine how young children combine different sources of information when inferring biological properties, and how they acquire the ability to rely on a single most predictive source of information. Specifically, we will estimate the importance of different sources of information across different age levels. We will also examine the transition from young children's induction (based primarily on overall similarity) to preadolescents' induction (based primarily on most predictive attributes). Finally, we will examine changes in inductive inference as a function of learning. In the course of the project, children and preadolescents (3-4-, 5-6-, 7-8- and 11-12 year olds) will participate in inductive inference and learning studies. The former will consist of a single session where participants will solve induction problems, whereas the latter will consist of 6 learning sessions spaced over a two-week period. At each session participants will be presented with induction problems and provided with feedback as to whether or not their inference is correct. The goal of these learning studies is to establish how children develop understanding of which attributes are most predictive for inferring biological properties.The project will contribute to our understanding of the development of human thinking, particularly of inductive inference and concept formation. In addition, the project may have important implications for the instructional theory and for learning and teaching science because it will specify how children think when they do not have knowledge of most predictive attributes, and how knowledge of these attributes changes their thinking.