BIOCOMPLEXITY-Evolution and Ecology of Perturbed Interactions: Modeling Disequilibria in Time and Space

生物群落的扰动，例如栖息地的丧失和新类群的入侵是有据可查的。经济发展、新技术和人口压力加剧了这种扰动的规模、频率和严重性。因此，进化和生态动力学可能被驱动远离它们的平衡，以至于用于理解和预测微妙扰动后果的线性近似是不合适的，而且可能是误导性的。为了阐明生物群落中大规模扰动的后果，提出了一个空间明确的模型，其动态是复杂的生态，遗传和历史因素。对（i）玉米黑穗病和玉米，（ii）与普通菜豆相关的根瘤菌，（iii）玉米螟和转基因Bt和非Bt玉米，以及（iv）草原植物及其传粉者的研究提供了由宿主与其相关者之间相互作用的一般模型框架构成的经验基础。 不同空间尺度的模型层次将决定不同因素在不同空间尺度上的进化和生态作用。 此外，统计工具被用来开发和分析数据的遗传多样性在非平衡条件下使用的时间和空间的信息，了解复杂的相互作用的社区成员经历这样的大规模扰动及其进化和生态后果，需要整合的经验工作和数学模型跨越时间和空间尺度。经验研究代表了过去（如（i）和（ii））或现在（如（iii）和（iv））发生的大扰动的例子。 历史研究允许测试理论模型的可预测性，以评估对目前发生的大规模扰动后果的预测的准确性。扰动包括（1）新生物的引入或（2）栖息地的破坏，两者都是在大的空间尺度上：玉米和豆类过去从南美洲和中美洲转移到北美洲，携带着微生物，在引入后，与已经存在的微生物竞争。 Bt玉米目前正被引入北美，作为对欧洲玉米螟（一种毁灭性的玉米害虫）的控制机制; Bt玉米在大的空间尺度上引入，这对Bt玉米抗性的进化带来了巨大的选择压力，这将使这种控制机制无效。生境破坏是一个持续的过程，影响到北美和世界其他地区几乎每一个自然群落，导致生物多样性丧失。其目标是预测植物大范围扩张和收缩对其相关生物群落的进化和生态后果，以便更好地管理自然和农业系统。

Perturbation of biological communities, exemplified by habitat loss and the invasion of novel taxa is well documented. Economic development, new technologies, and population pressure have escalated the scale, frequency, and severity of such perturbations. As a result, evolutionary and ecological dynamics may be driven so far from their equilibria that the linear approximations used for understanding and predicting consequences of subtle perturbations are inappropriate and probably misleading. To elucidate the consequences of massive perturbations in biological communities, a spatially explicit model whose dynamics are complicated by ecological, genetic, and historical factors, is proposed. Studies on (i) corn smut and corn, (ii) rhizobia associated with common bean, (iii) corn borer and genetically modified Bt and non-Bt corn, and (iv) prairie plants and their pollinators provide the empirical basis that are framed by the general model of interactions between hosts and their associates. A hierarchy of models at different spatial scales will determine the evolutionary and ecological role of different factors at the different spatial scales. In addition, statistical tools are used to develop and analyze data of genetic diversity under non-equilibrium conditions using both temporal and spatial information.Understanding the complex interactions between the members of communities undergoing such massive perturbations and their evolutionary and ecological consequences requires the integration of empirical work and mathematical models across temporal and spatial scales. The empirical studies represent examples of large perturbations that occurred either in the past (as in (i) and (ii)) or in the present (as in (iii) and (iv)). The historical studies allow testing the predictability of the theoretical models to assess the accuracy of the predictions for the consequences of massive perturbations that occur presently. The perturbations consist (1) of the introduction of novel organisms or (2) of habitat destruction, both at a large spatial scale: Corn and beans were moved from South and Central America to North America in the past carrying with them microorganism that, after introduction, competed with already present microorganisms. Bt corn is currently being introduced in North America as a control mechanism for the European corn borer, a devastating pest of corn; Bt corn is introduced at a large spatial scale that introduces large selection pressure on the evolution of resistance to Bt corn, which will make this control mechanism ineffective. Habitat destruction is an ongoing process affecting nearly every natural community in North America and in other parts of the world leading to loss in biodiversity. The goal is to predict the evolutionary and ecological consequences of large range expansions and contractions of plants on their associated biological communities in order to better manage natural and agricultural systems.