Extratropical Linkages to Tropical Cyclone Activity

这项研究将通过系统地调查高纬度地区与热带气旋和飓风活动的联系，增加对热带气旋活动的认识。目标是(i)识别和预测美国年际飓风变异性的最重要组成部分；（ii）描述和预测受气候异常影响的美国飓风登陆概率的年至年代际变化。一个新的动态概率模型将用于回答“如果”的问题，这些问题涉及大规模气候异常条件下飓风的区域可能性。将对经验正交遥相关方法进行修改，以描述和预测沿美国海岸线的飓风的主要协变模式。因子分析和变化点模型也将被使用。PI和他的团队在了解飓风和台风活动与气候的关系方面取得了几项突破。重要的主题是热带气旋活动的时空变异性与热带内外的气候过程有关。这项工作很重要，因为温带气候异常在调节热带气旋活动中起重要作用的观点是新的，并且有可能显著改变对全球气候过程的理解。

The research will increase knowledge of tropical cyclone activity by systematically investigating high latitude linkages to tropical cyclone and hurricane activity. The goals are (i) to identify and predict the most important components of US interannual hurricane variability; and (ii) to describe and predict annual to decadal variability of US hurricane landfall probabilities conditioned on climate anomalies. A new dynamic probability model will be used to answer 'what if' questions concerning the regional likelihood of hurricanes conditioned on large-scale climate anomalies. The method of empirical orthogonal teleconnections will be modified to describe and predict the dominant covariability patterns of hurricanes along the US coastline. Factor analysis and change-point models will also be used. The PI and his group have made several breakthroughs in understanding hurricane and typhoon activity as it relates to climate. The essential theme has been that space-time variability in tropical cyclone activity is related to climate processes operating both within and outside the Tropics. The work is important because the perspective that extratropical climate anomalies play an important role in modulating tropical cyclone activity is new, and has the potential to significantly alter understanding of global climate processes.