Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

该项目将提高我们对马登-朱利安涛动（MJO）演化和可预测性的理解。MJO是季节内变率的重要组成部分，在全球热带和中纬度太平洋/北美地区的环流和降水变率中起着重要的调节作用。MJO还影响亚洲-澳大利亚夏季风，甚至可能影响厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）变率，从而扩大其对主要气候系统的影响。在现有的大气环流模式中，MJO仍然是一个值得注意的、有些棘手的模拟缺陷，鉴于它对天气和气候的重大影响，需要紧急修复。Drs。Duane Waliser（纽约州立大学石溪分校）和Charles Jones（加州大学圣巴巴拉分校）将合作研究海洋对MJO演变的影响程度，通过模拟实验，采用热和动态响应的海洋模型。他们还将利用NASA/GSFC和NOAA/GFDL一般环流模式估计MJO的预报可预测性极限及其对中远期天气预报和季节内至年际气候变率的影响。NASA/GSFC的William Lau博士和NOAA/GFDL的William Stern博士将合作完成部分项目任务。

The project will improve our understanding of the evolution and predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). MJO is a key component of intra-seasonal variability, and plays a significant role in modulating the circulation and precipitation variability in the global tropics and the mid-latitude Pacific/North American region. MJO also influences the Asian-Australian summer monsoons and possibly even El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, thereby extending its impact on major climate systems. MJO remains a notable and somewhat intractable simulation deficiency in extant general circulation models, and one in need of an urgent fix in view of its substantial impact on both weather and climate. Drs. Duane Waliser (SUNY, Stony Brook) and Charles Jones (Univ. of California, Santa Barbara) will collaboratively investigate the extent of ocean's influence on MJO evolution from modeling experiments with a thermally and dynamically responsive ocean model. They will also estimate the limit of forecast predictability of the MJO and its implications for medium-to-extended range weather prediction and intraseasonal-to-interannual climate variability using the NASA/GSFC and NOAA/GFDL general circulation models. Dr. William Lau of NASA/GSFC and William Stern of NOAA/GFDL will be collaborating on some of the project tasks.