A Real Options Approach to Forecast Generation Adequacy in Competitive Electric Power Industry

这项拨款为研究竞争激烈的电力市场中长期产能投资的方法提供资金。其目的是研究与市场中许多复杂因素有关的发电充足性，如负荷增长、市场机制、发电机组的成本特征和物理限制、环境政策和竞争。具体而言，将针对三个主要目标：(1)开发基于实物期权的长期发电资产评估工具，并使用它来评估产能投资决策。(2)发展理论结果来定义“最优容量扩张”，包括在一个明确的、放松管制的环境中投资时机和发电机的类型和大小。(3)建立了一个模拟竞争性电力行业中发电容量扩张过程的模型，并利用该模型研究了电力行业中发电容量扩张的相关问题，预测了发电充足度和电价趋势。如果成功，给定一个明确定义的市场环境，该模型将用于预测未来每个时间段的电价和系统容量的概率分布以及停电的概率。这种预测模型将有助于发现与发电能力有关的不可预见的问题，并作为早期预警系统。

This grant provides funding for developing a methodology to study long-term capacity investment in a competitive electric market. The objective is to study generation adequacy in relationship to the many complex factors in markets, such as load growth, market mechanisms, cost characteristics and physical limits of generating units, environmental policies, and competition. Specifically, three main goals will be targeted: (1) Develop a real-options based, long-term generation asset valuation tool, and use it to evaluate capacity investment decisions. (2) Develop theoretic results to define the "optimal capacity expansion," including the investment timing and the generator's type and size in a well-defined, deregulated environment. (3) Develop a model that simulates generation capacity expansion process in the competitive electric power a model that simulates generation capacity expansion process in the competitive electric power industry, and use the model to study capacity expansion related problems, and forecast generation adequacy and electricity price trend. If successful, given a well-defined market environment, the model will be used to forecast the probability distributions for electricity price and system capacity at each future time period and the probability of blackouts as well. This forecasting model will help to detect unforeseeable problems related to generation adequacy, and to serve as an early warning system.