Variability of climate in Central Europe during the late Holocene from dendrochronological and documentary data (HOLOFLOOD)

该研究计划将通过分析全新世期间的降水、温度、环流模式和异常来确定气候动力学。这将通过结合两个独特的气候档案（追溯到公元1000年的文献数据，追溯到10000年前的树木年代学数据）来完成，两者都是真实的年时间尺度。在HOLOFLOOD数据分析的第一阶段，特别是树木年轮宽度和木材解剖变量与文献数据的并行化取得了令人鼓舞的成功。随着传递函数的发展和改进，已经取得了改进，从而重建了中欧历史时间以及47k BP事件的洪水、温度和降水变化。在INTERDYNAMIK的第二阶段，HOLOFLOOD将集中关注过去1200年，包括整个中世纪温暖期和小冰河期。在此期间，可以获得来自不同地区的大量树木年代学数据以及各种各样的文献数据。此外，全新世两次显著的气候波动（8,2 k BP）。（4,7 k BP）进行了更详细的研究，将重点放在气候突变的人为和自然驱动力上。在HOLOFLOOD的第二阶段，我们将进一步制定更详细的传递函数，涉及非线性和光谱分析技术，并通过增加更多种类的其他气候代用物（例如波浪和洞穴主题）来增强现有方法。在更大规模的方法上，欧洲大气环流的主要模式的重建将与气候重建的结果相对照。通过与建模人员密切合作，利用提供描述空间和时间尺度环流模式的日常信息的数据，如NCEP/NCAR再分析数据、GCMs等，将改进树木对“ Grosswetterlagen ”影响的响应研究结果。这将有助于更好地理解未来气候变率，并提高对未来气候变率的认识。

The research proposal will determine climate dynamics due to analysis of precipitation, temperature, circulation modes and anomalies during the Holocene. This will be done by combining two unique climate archives (documentary data back to 1.000 AD, dendrochronological data back 10.000 BP) both on true annual time scales. During the first stage of HOLOFLOOD data analysis, especially the parallelisation of tree-ring width and wood anatomical variables with documentary data succeeded encouragingly. Improvements had been achieved with the development and refinement of the transfer functions resulting in the reconstruction of flood, temperature and precipitation variability during historical time in Central Europe as well as for the 4,7k BP event. In the second stage of INTERDYNAMIK, HOLOFLOOD will intensively focus on the last 1200 years including the full Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. During this period a large amount of dendrochronological data from different regions as well as a broad variety of documentary data is available. Furthermore the two prominent climate fluctuations in the Holocene (8,2 k BP resp. 4,7 k BP) are investigated in a greater detail, laying the focus on human and natural driving forces of sudden climate changes. In the second stage of HOLOFLOOD further and more detailed transfer functions will be worked out involving non-linear and spectral analyses techniques as well as enhancing the existing approach by adding a wider variety of other climate proxies (e.g. warves and speleothems). On a more large scale approach the reconstruction of the leading modes of the European atmospheric circulation will be tested against the results of climatic reconstructions. In close collaboration with modellers the results derived from the research of the tree response to the influence of “Grosswetterlagen” will be improved by using data which provide daily information describing circulation modes on spatial and temporal scale, e.g. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data, GCMs etc. This will help to generate a better understanding of - and improved insight into future climate variability.