Geothermics of Climate Change

Chapman和Harris 0126029在钻孔中测量的温度-深度剖面包含了地表温度（SGT）过去变化的时间记录，并为过去几个世纪的气候变化提供了有价值的约束。尽管在过去二十年中，人们对“气候变化的地热学”这一主题有了很多了解，但仍然存在一些重要的问题。大陆的哪些地区正在经历短暂的地面变暖，程度如何？在全球变暖的仪器记录之前，工业革命时期的基线温度是多少？在适合气候变化研究的时间尺度上，空气和地面温度之间的关系是什么？地表温度变化对太阳辐射、降水和积雪等气候参数的敏感性如何？影响地热数据和气象地面气温记录之间比较的重要因素是什么？由于世纪的变暖，地球外层储存了多少热量？本项目将通过制定气候变化地热学的方法和进行分析来回答这些问题。这项研究涉及四个相互关联的任务：（1）实时地面观测站的运行（2）数据分析，定量估计太阳变化、降雪和降水对地温的影响;（3）在选定的钻孔中重复进行温度记录，以隔离与气候变化相关的瞬态温度场;（4）地热和气象资料的联合分析，重建局部、区域和全球尺度的气候变化。

Chapman and Harris0126029Temperature-depth profiles measured in boreholes contain a temporal record of past changes in surface ground temperature (SGT) and provide valuable constraints on climatic variations over the last few centuries. Although much has been learned in the last two decades about the subject "geothermics of climate change" there are important questions remaining. What regions of the continents are experiencing transient ground warming, and by how much? What are baseline temperatures at the time of the industrial revolution prior to the instrumental record of global warming? What is the relationship between air and ground temperature over time scales appropriate to climate change studies? What is the sensitivity of surface ground temperature change to climatic parameters such as solar radiation, precipitation, and snow cover? What are the significant factors impacting comparisons between geothermal data and meteorological surface air temperature (SAT) records? How much heat is being stored in the outer layers of Earth as a result of 20th Century warming? This project will answer these questions by developing methods for and performing analyses in the geothermics of climate change. The study entails four interrelated tasks: (1) operation of a real-time surface observatory (weather station at a borehole site) to monitor meteorologic variables and near-surface temperature; (2) data analysis making quantitative estimates of the effects of solar variations, snow, and precipitation effects on ground temperatures; (3) repeat temperature logging in selected boreholes to isolate transient temperature fields associated with climate change; and (4) combined analysis of geothermal and meteorologic data to reconstruct climate change at local, regional, and global scales.