SGER: An Assessment of US Electric Power Grid Geomagnetic Disturbance Hazard Risk Due to SSC, SI and Related Magnetospheric Shock Disturbances

地磁感应电流(GICs)通常是由地磁暴引起的局部地磁场的变化率产生的。当GIC规模很大和/或地理分布很广时，可能会导致严重的电力系统问题。设备的故障可能是由于GIC与电网的这种相互作用而发生的。以前的理解是，电喷流驱动的地磁风暴过程是影响电网的局部地磁场扰动和GIC的原因，特别是对于靠近电喷流的高磁纬度电网。然而，报告的大量电力系统问题并不符合与极光电喷流增强有关的时间或地点模式。相反，它们与地磁风暴开始(SC)事件的开始时间有关。对第22太阳周期和第23太阳周期迄今所报告的电力系统扰动和风暴气候学数据的初步审查表明，由于这种SC过程，已经观察到了一些严重的电力系统影响。从洛杉矶到德克萨斯州-新墨西哥州，以及整个美国东南部，以及传统的中纬度和北纬地区，电力系统的运行都受到了严重的影响。美国还没有进行严格的研究，甚至没有对这种风险潜力进行初步评估。PI将进行以美国为重点的地磁灾害研究和评估，以进一步详细了解这一重要的风暴过程，以及该风暴过程如何耦合到重要的地面基础设施，如电网和通信电缆。

Geomagnetically-Induced Currents (GICs) are generally produced by the rate-of-change of the local geomagnetic field caused by a geomagnetic storm. The GIC when large in magnitude and/or geographically wide-spread can lead to severe power system problems. Failures of equipment can occur due to this interaction of the GIC with the power grid.It has been previously understood that electrojet-driven geomagnetic storm processes were responsible for local geomagnetic field disturbances and GICs affecting power girds, especially for power grids at high magnetic latitudes, which are in close proximity to the electrojet currents. However, a large number of reported power system problems did not fit the timing or location pattern as being associated with intensification of auroral electrojets. Rather, they were associated with the onset times of geomagnetic storm commencement (SC) events. A preliminary review of power system disturbance and storm climatology data reported in Solar Cycle 22 and to date in Solar Cycle 23 indicates that a number of severe power system impacts have been observed due to this SC process. Severe impacts to power system operations have been observed as far south as Los Angeles, Texas-New Mexico, and all across the southeastern US, as well as traditional mid and northern latitude locations.No rigorous study has been conducted in the US to do even a preliminary assessment of this risk potential. The PI will undertake a US-focused geomagnetic hazard study and assessment to further develop detailed understanding of this important storm process and how this storm process couples to important ground-based infrastructures such as power girds and communication cables.